The 100: Day Five

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Eliminated

Game Master’s Notes

Many happy reveals! Well, depends on whose team you’re on, of course, but there’s probably something for everyone here? TWO deaths during the Night, and another dead Mafia! I wonder what happened? Well, we know what happened, but I bet you’re wondering. 😉

As for that final vote of Day Four: we usually allow deadline votes, but this time, we didn’t see Harker’s vote on time, so we revealed Kerys’s info. Had we counted Harker’s vote, Greg would’ve been voted out, but by then, everyone with an email subscription to the comments section had already received Kerys’s info, so we had to roll with that. We take full responsibility for this.

As always, don’t be afraid to contact us if you have any questions or just want to chat in private about what’s going on during the Game. We are here to help and want to make this as fun of an experience as possible! If it’s urgent, keep our time zones in mind: Inge lives on CEST (GMT/UTC+1) and Shannon on ET (GMT/UTC-5).

It is now Day Five.

You have until Sunday 7pm GMT to discuss suspicions and cast your votes. Once the deadline has been reached, the person with the most votes will be eliminated.

Good luck!

142 thoughts on “The 100: Day Five”

  1. 2 deaths? But yay we got the mafia!
    Just coming for notif and going to read Lore again

    But before I forget
    I think it’s Meeaghan who has theory that the cult my try to recruit someone who’s Grounder and whoever is not grounder will be killed?

    Judging by this then it means either someone kill Kerrie or the cult fail to convert her as she’s a mafia?

    PS: I don’t think the mafia will kill Kerri (as she’s one of them) so Amber should have been the night kill, but then again anything could have happened 🤔

    Could also be that we have a drunken gun owner as in BYOC2 and Kerrie tried to kill that person but was killed instead? 🤔

    Or idk, I’m out of scenario. Be right back to reading for now

  2. @Inge/Shannon: can you clarify something for me:

    Had we counted Harker’s vote, it would’ve been a tie

    Looking at the EOD, I think that Greg would have gone home because the tie that Beth created left it at

    Greg (4) — Shannon, Anne, Amber G., Kerys
    Kerys (5) — Harker, Kerrie, Maria, Amber B, Greg
    Kerrie (1) — Anna
    Maria (1) — Meeghan

    Not Voting: Beth

    when she cancelled it, so if mine had been counted, it would have changed to Greg 5, Kerys 4?

    Anyway…

    I apologize to Kerys for the apparently misguided belief that you were not on our side. Toward the end of the day I was feeling some kind of way and had chosen to believe you, hence my last minute switch. I wish it had taken and we’d had another Day to talk and figure out where the threats lay.

    I’m kind of curious why Kerrie’s Goon role is crossed out. I’d take it to mean it’s because of the Roleblocker ability she gained somewhere. How did that happen? One of the Night Action Events maybe?

    @Maria:

    I think it’s Meeaghan who has theory that the cult my try to recruit someone who’s Grounder and whoever is not grounder will be killed?

    That does sound interesting and I wonder if that could explain at least one of the deaths last Night. There are a lot of explanations that could be at play.

  3. @Maria: I was typing as you asked me that. 😂

    That is as good question as to why, even if my vote didn’t take, why Kerys’s power didn’t work to save herself. It might be one of those things we won’t find out until after the game though when we see the spreadsheet and if there were something from the previous night that carried over and prevented it maybe?

  4. @ Harker: You’re 100% correct, that is my bad. I’m not in a great mindspace at the moment. I’ll remove that part. 🙂

  5. The role page for governor says, “The Governor is able to stop a lynch from occuring. This is done by contacting the moderator before the end of Day using the Action form. When used, the game moves to the Night phase without a lynch occuring.

    Because lynching is the Town’s main weapon to eliminate enemies, the Governor is usually limited in the amount of times they can request the lynch to be stopped.

    The Governor can use this power to save themselves from being lynched.”,

    I’m guessing she used it on a previous day then.

    I’m super curious about Kerrie’s previous roleblocker role and scratched out goon role.

  6. That was an unsatisfying end to a day. 😒

    I am curious about Kerys’ Governor role. If she’d have used it already, we would have had a day without an elimination, as the role info says above that Amber just pulled. I wonder if there was something hinky or she didn’t know how to use it properly? At this point very unfortunate, but her death does highlight once again how Greg was in the lead and then the votes swing to a townie.

    VOTE: GREG

    Not to beat a dead horse because this horse is still very much alive. Lol

  7. I am updating my voting chart from the days when there has been a vote train that lead to either a townie being eliminated, or mafia on Day 1.

    Contentious vote between Nicole and Kara:
    + Day 1 Voting Kara (5)- Nicole, Greg, Amber G., Meeghan, Kerrie
    + Day 1 Result– Nicole eliminated, Mt Weather (mafia)


    Contentious vote between Megan and Greg:
    + Day 3 Voting Megan (7)- Anne, Maria, Anna, Meeghan, Amber B., Kerrie, Kerys
    + Day 3 Result — Megan eliminated, Team 100 (town); Greg saved

    Contentious vote between Kerys and Greg:
    + Day 4 Voting Kerys (5) — Harker, Kerrie, Maria, Amber B, Greg
    + Day 4 Result — Kerys eliminated, Team Ark (town); Greg saved

    I’m guessing based on these votes that Maria, Amber B, Kerrie and Greg are on the same team — Mt. Weather…

    [I typed this up after the end of Day 4. Looks like I was right about Kerrie.]

  8. Something I noticed…we’ve only gotten double kills on the even Nights. Could this be a pattern? Like, someone(s) has to prime an ability in order to kill? Because on Night 2, Kara and Siran died, then Night 4 Kerrie and Amber. The interesting thing about that, though, is that in the first case Kara and Siran were both Town-aligned. In the second case, Kerrie and Amber were Mt. Weather/Mafia and The 100/Town respectively. 🤔

  9. My guess, going by who has been eliminated so far, is that there are roughly 2-3 Mt. Weather people left. There’s at least one Cult person left because Jeann wasn’t the Cult Leader. Assuming they were able to recruit someone every Night (best case scenario for them) and that the Leader started out alone, that would be a max of 5 Cultists toDay. I do not think that is the case because between Jeann being gone, weakening their recruitment, and Meeghan’s theory, I don’t think they’ve been able to recruit every Night so they’re not at max numbers.

    Still, 9 people left, minus 2-3 for Mafia, leaves 6-7 as a mix of Cult and Town which is worrisome. We have to be careful because one wrong move and either the Mafia can swoop in and kill us or the Cult can recruit the right person and we’re done-zo.

    I’ll be looking back over the last couple Days to see if I see anything new.

  10. OK, first off, my apologies again for not realizing that my switching of my vote from Kerrie to Greg would cause a Greg/Kerys tie. Y’all know how I feel about ties, which is why I cancelled my vote at the last moment. My thought was that I could vote either Greg or Kerys, if someone else swung in and caused a tie at the last minute. During my frantic refreshing, that didn’t happen.

    I’m relieved to see my suspicions about Kerrie were correct! Since Amber B was next highest on my suspicion list, I’m going to go ahead and commit now and

    VOTE AMBER B

    @Harker

    I’m kind of curious why Kerrie’s Goon role is crossed out. I’d take it to mean it’s because of the Roleblocker ability she gained somewhere. How did that happen? One of the Night Action Events maybe?

    I’m curious about that, too! I don’t know if there’s a TBG role that can steal a power from one person and give it to another, but that was my immediate thought there. A role change based on the added Night Action story/game makes sense as well (and is a little concerning).

    Also @Harker

    Something I noticed…we’ve only gotten double kills on the even Nights. Could this be a pattern?

    Holy cats, I didn’t even notice that! Good catch. In the ADSOM TBG, my Insanity only kicked in every other day, so it seems plausible that there might be a role power that allows extra deaths on even nights…but considering Kerrie was killed, I’m guessing it’s not a Mafia role power.

  11. Actually, I think Kerrie was killed because Anna voted for her. It’s now a confirmed pattern.

    Anyone Anna votes for either is voted off at the end of the Day, or they are killed overNight.

    D1: Anna voted for Jenn
    N1: Jenn dies
    D2: Anna voted for Siran
    N2: Siran dies
    D3: Anna voted for Megan Rose
    Megan Rose was voted off
    D4: Anna voted for Kerrie
    N4: Kerrie dies

    I had originally thought that Anna was mafia because of this, but why vote of a fellow mafia member if your vote kills them?? Which means I now think Anna is town, but likely has a Vigilante type role??

  12. @Meeghan: that is definitely a pattern. Possibilities:

    Anna is doing it unintentionally (her role is somehow causing it). She didn’t vote for anyone else the Night Megan died so that could explain why there was only 1 death.

    Anna is doing it intentionally and is [insert party here] because she may or may not know who the people she is targeting are.

    Anna is Town and the Mafia caught on to this idea super early and is using it against her. When is the first time this theory is brought up?

    Also, has Anna said anything about it? I know the possibility was brought up earlier, but I can’t at this time recall if she said anything in regards to it. Seems like she’d want to make a comment disavowing us of the suspicion, but maybe she missed it or something else.

  13. I am still most suspicious of Maria.

    Maria has consistently voted for townies:
    D1: Jenn
    D2: Megan Rose
    D3: Megan Rose
    D4: Kerys

    On D1 she said

    I kinda lean towards that The 100 is the town (I mean the title? 🙈) and some others are possible alliances).

    From this statement alone I would say she isn’t Grounder or Ark. She could be 100, third party or mafia.

    Maria also said a couple of odd things on D1-2:
    * She hypothesised that Kara had to vote for Greg because she was ‘ordered’ to.
    * Maria says that she wants to vote for Kara but then doesn’t in case she has a ‘vengeful power’.
    * Hypothesised that because Jenn and Kara didn’t vote for each other it meant that Grounders and Ark were really the same team.
    * Kept using Kara’s “don’t trust non-grounders” to question whether Ark was actually pro-town.
    * Said that Jenn might not have been an actual Cop.

    On D2 when I asked Kara why she hadn’t voted yet, Maria then added to my question asking why she hadn’t specifically voted for Anna or Greg.

    On D3 Maria asked who Kara had been protecting with her bodyguard role several times.

    Yes, these are all little things, but they add up in a way that I am uncomfortable with, so this is why I voted for Maria yesterday.

  14. @Harker, I first brought up the theory yesterDay in my very long discussion, but given how late it was when I posted, Anna would have been asleep, and she hasn’t posted yet toDay. (Which fair, considering I should be working, not playing!!)

  15. Hello @Meeaghan, sorry it was 2am when I commented so I was about to address your thoughts on me:

    I am still most suspicious of Maria.
    About me voting for townies, I guess just coincidence? The reason I didn’t vote for Dana in D2 was (this is stupid I know) I was too tired and couldn’t understand what was going on and Megan struck me so I voted her that time instead of Dana. I should have said I also have short attention span sometimes and some words just got out of my mind (Idk if I explained this right xD)

    On D1 she said

    I kinda lean towards that The 100 is the town (I mean the title? 🙈) and some others are possible alliances).

    From this statement alone I would say she isn’t Grounder or Ark. She could be 100, third party or mafia.

    or maybe I just don’t want to reveal my own alliance?

    Maria also said a couple of odd things on D1-2:
    * She hypothesised that Kara had to vote for Greg because she was ‘ordered’ to.
    * Maria says that she wants to vote for Kara but then doesn’t in case she has a ‘vengeful power’.
    * Hypothesised that because Jenn and Kara didn’t vote for each other it meant that Grounders and Ark were really the same team.
    * Kept using Kara’s “don’t trust non-grounders” to question whether Ark was actually pro-town.
    * Said that Jenn might not have been an actual Cop.

    I don’t see why it was odd. I just thought the possibility of the vote thief on D1, which was explained that it was not possible (I think Harker said that?) and Kara said it was on her own will to vote for Greg. I only played once before and we used a random generator to vote for people as we didn’t have suspicion for everyone but Kara just came and was so sure to vote for Greg which came to my theory.

    I was confused as why you somehow misinterpret or twist my words in a way. I was just asking because she kept saying the don’t trust non-grounders thing. And my theory of Jenn might not be an actual cop came from reading too many of this kind of games before.

    Idk which role that could hide another person’s role or change it (not even sure if I read it in somewhere else, lol).

    On D2 when I asked Kara why she hadn’t voted yet, Maria then added to my question asking why she hadn’t specifically voted for Anna or Greg.

    Well I just thought of that when I saw your comment too, I guess. I didn’t think there’s anything wrong with that. You mentioned something I didn’t think of and I though to voice it out.

    On D3 Maria asked who Kara had been protecting with her bodyguard role several times.

    Sorry, I only mentioned it once here https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/01/27/the-100-day-three/#comment-79377

    It was just a musing thought because she’s a bodyguard, so she could be protecting someone. Maybe if we can find whom she’s protecting, we can get something. But then I think, nah it’s too much work, who knows what really happened. Maybe the mafia really targeted Kara.

    I think the next one was I mentioned if mafia could know that Kara was a bodyguard

    My question is, why was it bothering you if I ask whom Kara had been protecting? I thought it was normal, judging her role as a bodyguard for me to ask that once? @_@

    I find your note about Greg never really mentioned much about his night chat, looking at it now. what are your thoughts of that?

  16. omg my blockquote is messing up! @shannon /inge could you help me fix it up? haha

    @harker:
    think the best now is 4 cults because Jeann died.
    Also you pointed out about the even night deaths, maybe when the cult recruit someone on even night, the other person ended up dying?
    but it will be so scary to go at this rate

    we have 9 people, assuming 2-3 mafia like you mentioned then 6 – 7 are town
    and if we have say 2-3 cult then the rest is 4 – 5 people town
    And don’t forget the traitor so…..

    @meeaghan:

    I would read your notes for other members in a while. Sorry it would take me some time to read them!

  17. @Maria:

    think the best now is 4 cults because Jeann died.
    Also you pointed out about the even night deaths, maybe when the cult recruit someone on even night, the other person ended up dying?
    but it will be so scary to go at this rate

    Assuming the Cult can recruit one person per night, no impediments, and a starting base of one Leader, the best case scenario for them would likely be 5 people max – Jeann (due to a Night death). Yes, that’s what I think at this point.

    The double deaths on even Nights seem to be something but I’m not sure what. There’s the theory about recruitment of non-Grounders causing it, maybe Anna’s votes having something to do with it because of them also matching up, plus the possibility of misfiring Town-aligned abilities. sigh

  18. Thanks @shannon!

    Also @everyone ; it’s CNY here so tonight and tomorrow might be hectic

    Would go back on weekend hopefully!

    @Harker:
    You’re looking into cult before and you have somehow has the information.
    With that being said, who’s the one under your radar that might be the cult leader? Or someone that you’re suspicious of that might be turned into a cultist?

  19. Oh wow…

    the theory about Anna maybe unintentionally causing kills is compelling. And of course whether Grounders are being co- opted. I do have a feeling that the Night Events are having a big impact. The last few Games have had a Spec chat involvement, button drops and whatnot, and here we seem to see less of that, maybe the Night Events are the big variable.

    @Harker – I share your concern about the numbers. Assuming the Cult has made some progress and with D5 on us time becomes a concern.

  20. Oh damn!
    Forget of my calculation before
    We have 9 people left and assuming the best scenario for the cult – Jeann, they have 4 people already (inc the leader)

    (This assumption means the double death has nothing to do with the cult)

    If that’s the case then we need to get rid of someone who is more likely to be a cultist.
    Otherwise, in D5 we lynch 1 person out, left with 8

    Then if they manage to hire 1 more, they will definitely win the majority in D6 already

    Omg, with this I feel like most of us might be a cultist or the cultist leader already then???

    Now I really hope the double death is sth to do with the cult and they only have like 2-3 only…

  21. Those of you calculating the potential numbers of Mafia, Town, and Cult- are you counting the Traitor in your tally for Town, or for Mafia?

  22. @Beth: I hadn’t thought about the Traitor specifically, but now that you mention them, assuming they’re real, I still think I would count them in the Mafia tally because their win condition is the same as the main Mafia group. The only thing they have in common with the Town is that they investigate as such, yes?

    @Maria: Happy Chinese New Year!

    Trying to figure out who the Cult Leader who turn is kind of like trying to figure out who the Mafia would kill at Night. 🥴 I’ll need to look at my notes and the Days a little more to assess, given what has been revealed toDay with the Deaths. Given that Greg has managed to escape lynching a couple times now, I do think there might be something to him. Whether the Mafia is leaving him because they think he’ll cause more chaos (possible) or the Cult has recruited him/he’s leading it (also possible), I’m not sure.

  23. @Harker

    Are you not considering that Greg may be in the mafia itself? Seems like you have given two alternatives to something that may be much simpler. (Mafia votes to save their own)

    What did you mean at the end of the day about your vote? Didn’t you say something like you hope it doesn’t bite you?

    I am interested in your cult thoughts since you pegged Jeann so accurately!

  24. @Anne: that is 100% a possibility and kind of an offshoot of why he might not have been eliminated at Night, which I mentioned last time (rather than as a means of sowing discord).

    As for my other EOD comment, EOD switch votes usually do raise suspicion, plus I had been bringing up alternate theories regarding Greg at the time, the person who should have gone home, so at the time I was assuming that was what I would be dealing with: a vote that sent someone home.

  25. Given that Greg has managed to escape lynching a couple times now, I do think there might be something to him. Whether the Mafia is leaving him because they think he’ll cause more chaos (possible) or the Cult has recruited him/he’s leading it (also possible), I’m not sure.

    The idea of being the Cult leader sounds fun, but alas I am not. Although as much as I’m on the board I might as well be mafia lol. Okay, kidding. that will probably get me a vote but I’m just kidding!

    the person who should have gone home

    I understand there’s a little frustration about EOD, but honestly? When I refreshed at 7:00 pm it said Day Four had ended. Then I refreshed again a few seconds later- always looking forward to those end notes!- and I saw Harker’s last minute vote. So from my perspective the Day ended beforehand! That’s just what I saw when refreshing, not trying to zing anybody. So I’m just quibbling gently with the idea that maybe it’s a mistake that Greg didn’t get “sent home”?

  26. Votes that come in at 7pm have been counted before (such as Dana’s and Megan’s on D1), so that is why I fully believe mine should have been counted if the page had been refreshed before the final email had gone out, hence my comment.

    There’s nothing to be done at this point about it, though. 🤷‍♂️

  27. Ok, so, I’m going to post these as I work them up because they are so long and so that people can respond to them in the meantime. Please be patient because they’re taking time. 😂

    Anna

    Final Votes By Day: Jenn, Siran, Megan (success), Kerrie

    DAY ONE

    Said to Greg that she thought either Grounders or Mt. Weather could work as Mafia for enemies of The 100/people of the Arc; also that there is so much potential for a bloodbath.

    She made a statement to Amber B.:

    @Amber B True I think more than any good guys its just people mostly trying their best to survive in The 100.

    That, at that point looking back, would have made me think that perhaps she was more Town aligned than not.

    This other quote, though, does make me wonder if perhaps she has/had a thought about something that many people didn’t at the time;

    Then again who knows. The more I think about it the more I realise how much potential there is for more than one anti-town team. I’m wondering if the grounders start off as anti-town, maybe certain goals we aren’t aware of could be met and they create a ‘ fragile alliance’ with the town. I really don’t know just running with some thoughts about the possibilities.

    The last comment of substance from her this Day is a response to being asked about whether she considers Grounders a singular unit or made up of parts, to which she responds:

    I think probably made out of parts more than a singular unit. My earlier comment was me thinking based mostly of what I remembered of the first season and I forgot a lot about the grounders. But from what others have been saying I think it best not to assume that.

    CONCLUSION D1: I think that Anna definitely knows something because there is something about her comments that seem to allude to such. Whether this is being part of the Cult at this stage (hence sowing confusion about how many groups there are to look for/eliminate) or the Mafia (same as before), I don’t know. Looking back at D1, I’d say 30-40%.

    DAY TWO

    Anna’s first comment of the Day is to say that she is glad that we got out a Mafia member (Nicole) and also that:

    I’m sorry we lost Jenn.

    Did she ever respond to why she said this when she was the one who voted for Jenn in the first place? I didn’t catch this at the time, but that seems odd.

    When I first saw that Jenn was dead I assumed that meant some attention could be on me for voting for her. But I think Beth made some good point about what may have happened since we don’t know for sure what did happen.

    Beth came up with a few theories here (https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/01/20/the-100-day-two/#comment-79085), which I assume is what Anna is referring to for the most part, plus Beth made a comment on D2 about Jeann and Jenn both thinking that Nicole was not a Grounder (accurate), and as she (Beth) didn’t think that Jeann was Mafia, she also didn’t think that Jenn was for the time being (this post having been written before the revelation that Jenn had been killed N1). Does this go together with what Anna said about Beth having made some good points? Certainly, if you’re coming from the direction of having voted for someone.

    I don’t have a lot of strong suspicions right now. I would say Megan is probably someone on my radar largely for her end of Day voting, but I think I’m willing to give her some benefit of the doubt for now because she did say she mixed up the ending time and didn’t have much time to catch up by the end of D1. And it could have just been end of day craziness and panic.

    I think out of everyone I’m most suspicious of Siran currently. Not voting D1 could be her as town generally not wanting to vote out another town member but I know that it’s an action I once took as mafia and makes me suspicious of her doing it as a mafia member.

    This makes me wonder about her vote for Jenn on D1. Anna had said, regarding voting versus not:

    I think it’s a better policy to vote even if we’re not totally sure because it gives us at least something to work off.

    So far as I can see at this point, there didn’t seem to be any other suspicion on Jenn, so I’m not sure what Anna would have hoped to learn. A lot of votes came in after Anna’s last vote, which is fair enough, but if information is the base goal, why not vote for Kara who at the time (if my timestamps are correct) had two?
    CONCLUSION D2: Anna’s comments, though sparse, look as though they’re flying under the radar. I don’t think that her vote for Jenn is addressed directly, though it is mentioned by at least one other person (I’m going alphabetically so thus far I haven’t seen much other than Beth-attached-by-comment bringing it up). She agreed with Beth’s theories regarding the possibilities of what happened to Jenn which feels, suspicious as I am at this stage, like a cover. It’s a semi-soft sus in that regard, though, standing on its own.

    The Siran votes, which started with Anna’s, are something to put a pin in because they were largely based on Anna’s reason (the time she did it and was a Mafia member), Siran’s not voting 2 Days in a row (Kerrie), lack of theorizing (Kara, and Dana (preservation).

    DAY THREE

    Anna’s votes continue to, though not vote people out during the Day, line up with people that are lynched during the Night. Meeghan either has a point about this or whoever is responsible for these deaths has incredible timing/luck. She does say that the confirmation of the various teams is a good thing.

    In response to Beth on D3 she says this (responding to not mentioning Greg or Megan who also didn’t vote):

    I wasn’t specifically commenting on Siran not voting on D2 being suspicious because at the time I placed my vote there was still plenty of time for her to vote.

    While she didn’t mention D2 specifically, reading her reasoning on D2 when voting for Siran I think it was generally accepted that it was bringing D1-2 together so I’m not sure I 100% believe this explanation.

    I’m pretty sure I mentioned being uneasy of Megan D2, but was willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for the moment due to arriving at the end of day 1 too late resulting in the voting she did do. But for the moment I think I feel more comfortable voting her.

    She did mention having Megan on her radar, but it was for her EOD vote and having the ending time mixed up. I don’t recall seeing anything that indicates a change in Anna’s suspicions between that comment and the one where Anna’s vote is cast for Megan. Is this addressed? Why is Anna suddenly more comfortable?

    CONCLUSION D3: Anna’s questionable moves seem to go directly untouched which is either amazingly lucky or directly intentional.

    DAY FOUR

    I’m sorry we lost Megan. I wasn’t totally confident in voting for her or Greg but felt I had to chose one of them.

    Why ? Voting for someone who wasn’t on the board at the time hasn’t stopped Anna in the past two Days , so what is different on D3?

    Anna’s opinion of the Cult reveal is that it is more likely to be a Cult than a Cultafia, but that it also leads to the question of who or what caused the second death N2.

    She votes for Kerrie who turns out to be Mafia. If she were Mafia as well, this could have been a move to make her appear innocent because she doesn’t come back after this vote comment, so if others did end up voting for Kerrie, Anna would have been early enough to maybe have skated on a suspicious vote (I think they tend to be looked at as more sus if they’re EOD). However, most of her votes have been like this: the first for a person who isn’t on the board, so I’m not sure what to think of that, especially when coupled with the “they tend to die at night” thing.

    CONCLUSION D4: Anna has questions pop up around her that don’t tend to get answered over the Days which is, at the very least, interesting.

    TOTAL CONCLUSION: There’s something hinky in Annaville. If I were basing it solely on the observations I’d made up above, I would say that I think she is more than likely a Mafia member that is flying under the radar. I’m not sure if Meeghan’s theory is accurate, as intriguing it is, though it is making me think about alternatives. If it is accurate, then I would be more inclined to think that Anna is something else such as a Cult member. Either way, I do not think that Anna is a Townsperson.

  28. @Harker and everyone, really: after the timer ended I refreshed the page. Harker’s vote was not there, there were no new posts, so as the Day had ended, I posted. Harker’s vote must have posted near simultaneously to my own, but I did in fact refresh after the timer ended, and their vote was not yet there just to clarify. In the future I will be sure to close comments immediately when the timer ends, then post.

  29. We did, Amber, so I’m not sure what you mean by your comment, hence the nothing more by it comment I made in response to Greg. We commented, we moved on.

    So, now that you’re here, any comments on the last couple of Days from your perspective? I’m still working on my posts, as I mentioned.

  30. Oy. I didn’t mean to open a can of worms. I just was sharing what I saw. And as Harker says, it’s water under the bridge. Sorry!!!

    @Harker- this comment by Anna has me also wondering whether she was on to something earlier…

    I’m wondering if the grounders start off as anti-town, maybe certain goals we aren’t aware of could be met and they create a ‘ fragile alliance’ with the town. I really don’t know just running with some thoughts about the possibilities.

  31. @Greg: what do you mean, exactly? If we’re looking at the gem colors, there are distinct ones that mark off the different teams:

    Team Murphy (3rd Party)(Green)
    The Ark (Town)(Yellow)
    The 100 (Town)(Yellow)
    Grounders (Town)(Yellow)
    Mount Weather (Mafia)(Red)
    The Cult (3rd Party)(Green)

    The Grounders that have been revealed so far have the same color as the also revealed Ark/100 people. Do you think they somehow made an alliance or met some goal? Or what do you think the connection is between that information and what Anna had said?

  32. I meant that Anna may have been on to something about “certain goals”. Maybe that dovetails with Kara’s assertion that we “need” Grounders to win? This goes back to the is there/ isn’t there Reapers, are Grounders being turned a lose condition, etc.

  33. Sorry for the late check-in toDay – What a bummer how yesterDay ended! Not to belabor the point or beat a dead horse (sorry Kerys) but I was very excited to see Harker’s vote switch right at 7pm and realize that meant Greg had the most votes so I could finally get some answers! The second refresh of the page confused me as I then saw the post saying Kerys was voted off and was a Town member, followed by Harker’s second post saying they hoped the switch didn’t come back to bite them. Again, not to bring blame or focus on that, but it was rough to see us lose another Town member considering the attempted last-second vote switch.

    Then to lose a second town member in Amber G overNight hurts as well! Glad to see Kerrie/another Mounter Weather character killed overNight though!

    I’m going to catch up on toDay’s comments and then make a post with my early thoughts.

  34. @Greg/everyone – I think at this point the Cult is a 3rd party lead by Allie/City of Light. I don’t think Grounders being turned into Reapers by Mt. Weather makes sense anymore, because then it seems like it would be a Cultafia situation, but all the information we have leads to Cult and Mafia being different teams. The information I’m referring to is that Mt. Weather/Mafia has a red gem on their tombstones, 3rd Party Dana/Murphy had a green gem, Townies (the Ark, the 100, and Grounders) have a yellow gem. Jeann/Indria was a Grounder before being turned to a Cult member and she has green/yellow marker on her tombstone rather than red of Mt. Weather/Mafia.

  35. Cult Theories

    People Remaining: Anna, Anne, Amber B., Beth, Greg, Harker, Maria, Meeghan, Shannon

    Anne

    Final Votes by Day: Harker, Dana (success), Megan (success), Greg

    DAY ONE

    There is not a lot to look at one Day One for Anne. I pulled these two quotes because of all her comments, they seemed like the ones most likely to reveal something if anything:

    1.

    I’ve seen 2 seasons but it has been some time so I don’t have much to add. Plus, I don’t usually speculate much about roles. I don’t think it helps me find baddies so I prefer to read about role spec than participate. Later on,
    mafia starts also using it to blend in a lot.

    Note: keep an eye out to see if Anne mentions roles a lot in the future, especially after this comment.

    2.

    I’m with Amber G, I don’t understand what Meeghan means by this:

    • the 100 = town 1
    • the ark = town 2
    Isn’t this one in the same? Aren’t these the same people, how could it be two towns.

    Having since watched the first season, I view this a little more cautiously because The 100 were the kids that were jettisoned from the Ark while The Ark were those that were left behind. I myself messed up on the names at that point because I had yet to watch the first season though, so not having that information at the time, I didn’t think anything of it. I’m not really sure I do now either, but I’ll keep it in mind.

    DAY TWO

    I would guess Jenn was killed so no real insight could be gained from her elimination. But, looking back at the votes end of Day One will be more than helpful to start. So exciting to get a mafia member on Day One.

    This is true; I think Jeann also referred to Jenn’s lynching at one point as a typical Mafia revenge kill (not sure of the exact wording). Whether that was before or after her recruitment is neither here nor there at this point because the Cult needs the Mafia out and/or recruited as much as the Town needs them out.

    EOD 1 votes: Nicole: Kara (6:38P), Beth (6:50P), Dana (7:00P), Harker (6:47P), Kerys (6:59P), Megan (6:59P – cancelled); Nicole had two more votes that preceded these EOD votes: Jeann (9:19A) and Jenn (4:02P).

    Anne after this comment refers back to Beth’s timing breakdown which look more detailed than the above timestamps (she does a minute break down with asides about ties and such).

    Megan Rose cancelled her vote for Nicole at the last moment after Dana placed a vote for Nicole. She said today it was all in self-preservation, but I don’t understand that logic. The end of day seemed confusing, but as Jeann pointed out above (https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/01/20/the-100-day-two/#comment-79110), what Megan Rose has said about Kara’s being pro-town or not between Days 1&2 are kind of contradictory,

    Anne said this 1.23 2:17PM and I’m slightly confused by it because in the comment that she linked, I think that Jeann is talking about Dana, not Megan as Anne seems to be talking about in her comment.

    @Anne: could you clarify?

    CONCLUSION D2: There’s still not a lot to go on from Anne’s corner.

    DAY THREE

    Anne responds to Amber G.’s news that Greg was talking to someone N2 that it could be a Neighborhood situation like she was in during the Chaos Walking game or something more sinister like a Mafia chat.

    I’m still suspect of Megan Rose and Amber B from the Day One voting, and still have yet to look at the runaway vote from Yesterday when surely some mafia slipped on the Dana train…

    I remember Anne mentioning being suspicious of Megan Rose, but I think this is the first time she mentions being suspicious of Amber B., much less “still suspect” of her. There isn’t even a mention of Amber in any of her D1-2 comments.

    Posts a recap of the votes from the previous days. Asks why I wanted seven people to chime in with their opinions about the cult.

    From what I recall and every mafia game I’ve played, a traitor does not know who the mafia is. And the mafia does not know who their traitor is/or if they have one. So calling out there is one this early is a good opportunity for the traitor to do something somewhat scummy to get attention. Not sure this is super helpful for the town to have this called out, I feel like it benefits the mafia more, but maybe that’s because I don’t trust anyone anyways. 🤣

    And @Harker, not sure what to take with your statement. Yeah, okay, a cult can catch up on the town, but the mafia is a threat we know exists right now. Asking for lots of speculation about something seems like a distraction tactic from what we know: Mt. Weather is the enemy.

    Something I find interesting about this comment is that Anne does seem to find the traitor news credible, which seems evident in this part in particular:

    So calling out there is one this early is a good opportunity for the traitor to do something somewhat scummy to get attention. Not sure this is super helpful for the town to have this called out, I feel like it benefits the mafia more

    But then Anne calls into question/casts doubt on the existence of the cult:

    And @Harker, not sure what to take with your statement. Yeah, okay, a cult can catch up on the town, but the mafia is a threat we know exists right now.

    The difference is slight, but I think I see one now, looking back. What is the difference at this point that Anne would believe more in the existence of one and not the other? Or, to put it another way, cast doubt on one? We know the Mafia exists for sure, but not that the traitor does, so at that point she has no reason to believe in it more than the cult (from her perspective).

    CONCLUSION D3: I think Anne may be in the cult.

    DAY FOUR

    Wonders about the EOD votes that may or may not have saved Greg.

    If Greg wasn’t in the mafia, why would there be such a close call at the end of the day there? Was that the mafia coming in and voting for the only other viable player on the board?

    Mentions that the vote thief reveal could have been a ruse. Anne also wondered, saying she tracked with Kerrie, about why I stuck with my Jeann vote. She asked me twice about this; perhaps she did not see my first response?

    Posts a reference on who voted for known Town players: https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/02/03/the-100-day-four/#comment-79694

    Notes that she thinks a suspicious amount of people started the game with information.

    Hmm, crazy that both Maria and Kerrie had the same exact thought about Kerys and the “neighbor chat not being crossed out” within minutes of each other…
    Wow, almost too close to be coincidental…

    @Anne: what do you mean by these? Did you think that Maria and Kerrie’s similar thoughts indicated a connection? If so, what is your position now that Kerrie has been lynched?

    CONCLUSION D4: Not a lot happens today except what I think is a comment that casts some suspicion on Kerrie and Maria, plus her saying that the vote thief thing could be a ruse. She also posts a reference to votes that were placed for known Town players.

    CONCLUSION OVERALL: I think it’s likely that Anne is in the cult who is doing a good job of blending in and not making many, if any, overt claims or theories.

  36. The first line in my previous comment (which is at the moment awaiting moderation) was not meant to be transferred over, but as it doesn’t make a whole lot of difference one way or the other, I just wanted to let y’all know I hit copy all when moving my notes over.

  37. Since Beth so wonderfully broke down the people who have voted for confirmed Townies for us let’s add yesterDay’s info to it: It now stands at:

    Voted for Siran: Kerrie, Kara, Dana, Anna
    Voted for Jenn: Jeann, Anna, Maria, Amber B
    Voted for Kara: Amber G (twice), Kerys, Greg (twice), Nicole, Meeghan, Amber B, Dana, Kerrie
    Voted for Megan: Maria (twice), Dana, Anne, Meeghan, Amber B, Kerrie, Kerys, Anna
    Voted for Kerys yesterDay: Harker (Technically, though they tried to swtich to Greg at the last second), Kerrie, Maria, Amber B., Greg
    For whatever it might mean:
    Players who voted for 4/5 confirmed Townies: Kerrie (now dead, confirmed Mt. Weather mafia), Amber B
    Players who voted for 3/5 confirmed Townies:, Dana (dead, 3rd party Murphy), Anna, Maria
    Players who voted for 2/5 confirmed Townies:, Kerys (now dead, Townie), Meeghan

    Now, onto my other thoughts.

    Harker – I HAD thought Harker was defending Greg and that they were teammates but the last-second vote switch attempt makes me wonder if Harker is third party… Possibly Allie/the Cult leader if what Meeghan suggested towards the end of yesterDay is true?! I know you voted for Jeann Day 3 and we found out she was a cult member when she died overNight, but since you were the only vote for her it’s possible that you were doing that to create distance knowing she wasn’t going to get voted out.

    I also feel like Harker is spending a lot of time so far today discussing the Cult and trying to figure out how many people they may have turned. While normally I would think a Cult leader or member would want to avoid talking about it/drawing attention to it; at this point I think it is obvious people are going to focus on it so they may be trying to be out and open about it to avoid suspicion.

    I think Harker spent a lot of time yesterDay distancing themself from Greg after people vocalized how much time they spent defending him the Day before (I know you have already addressed your defense Harker), but it seemed like they were blatantly trying to point out suspicions of Greg, and then the last-second vote switch happened. Though I would have been glad to see the switch go through in time to get Greg the most votes, I think vote switching in the very last second feels very anti-town.

    Admittedly, this isn’t much information to go off of to be suspicious of Harker being a Cult member or leader, however we have to start somewhere and these are just the random thoughts that have come to my mind regarding them.

    Anna – I do agree that Anna is very suspicious, though she has “only” voted for 3/5 confirmed Townies and not 4/5 as others have. The people she voted for dying overNight is just way too bizarre a coincidence to overlook.

    Amber B – I’ve been suspicious of Amber B throughout the past couple Days, primarily because of her defense of Greg (who we all know I think I Mt. Weather), but seeing her having voted for 4/5 confirmed Town members makes that suspicion stronger.

    Greg – I’m still very suspicious of Greg for all the reasons previously mentioned, as well as the fact that people keep vote-switching last second and saving him at the end of the Day.

    Those are my thoughts and suspicions, but I’m going to hold off on voting for now. Voting early seems to only be giving Mafia extra time to strategize their votes/vote switching.

  38. @Shannon: it wasn’t a diversionary tactic, it was reexamining Greg and realizing that there were avenues that I should take a better look at.

    I am focusing on the cult information (i.e. talking about the odds and so forth) because that is the information that I know and that I can build on. If I were the leader, I would not be belaboring the point like this, considering that the cult works best in secrecy. The same thing holds true as cultist. If I were suddenly recruited, I’d expect to see some change but not the same or an increase.

    Out of curiosity, what do we consider last minute voting? Last ten minutes? Last five or fewer? Just to have a frame of reference for these comments.

  39. @Harker, you had some questions.

    In that comment you linked, Jeann was addressing Megan directly with an @Megan Rose. Not sure what I can clear about your confusion there, maybe look at it again?

    This was not a question, but I never said a traitor existed, my point was that the information wasn’t as helpful to the town as it possibly could be to the mafia if they were unaware of a traitor’s existence.

    On Day 3, I was very much wondering why everyone was focusing on things that were not confirmed: traitor/cult. As I said before (and you even just noted you were watching me for consistency on this), a lot of role speculation is not helpful in identifying who is mafia.

    Your focus on the cult made no sense to me on Day 3 when a cult wasn’t even confirmed at that point, hence my questions to you about why you were placing such a big focus there (speculating on roles) instead of mafia. You stated on Day 4 that you had this info on cult from the start. Obviously on Day 4 with Jeann’s death we all knew, but I had no reason to think there was one before.

    Re: Maria and Kerrie’s comments, they were almost the exact same thoughts. Too big of a coincidence. I think they talked about Kerys being the strategic focus for Day 4 in the mafia chat and somehow accidentally posted suspicions around her that were linked. I already stated today that I thought Maria was mafia, as well as Greg and Amber B. So my view on that has not changed with Kerrie’s reveal, but further confirmed it.

  40. @Anne: I am so sorry. The only thing I can think of is that when I clicked on the link I confused the post below it with the actual intended post? The next comment is Jeann’s which does does talk about Dana. Whoops. 🙃

    My interpretation of what you said about the traitor and how calling out there is one was what lead me to think that you were, at the very least, inferring your belief/agreement there was one. The wording sounded to me like you did. If it wasn’t meant that way, that’s another thing, that is just how I see it, hence the inclusion above in the post.

    I’m home now, by the way, and I’ll be working on more of the posts I’d said I’d get to. 🙂

  41. Amber B.

    (my apologies, I just realized I put Amber after Anna and Anne. 🙃)

    Final Votes by Day: Jenn, Dana (success), Megan (success), Kerys (success)

    DAY ONE

    Notable comments (summary):

    There are no good guys.
    In regards to Murphy, thought he seemed more Townie than anything (“good guy”/Townie). Ultimately not-Town, whatever else.
    Not sure about Jaha’s alignment but doubts he’d be in the game (also unsure). Similar thoughts on A.L.I.E. Thinks that the Grounders could be anti-Town based on the S1 finale.
    Confused by Kerrie’s comment about voting out one of the Ambers because it would still leave a lot of players (note: so what makes one of the Ambers a better target than any of the others?)
    Unsure of Kara, thinks it’s good “it’s good to know someone’s alliances with someone being voted off”, and not voting is not good. (note: wouldn’t we, barring unforeseen circumstances, find out someone’s alliance no matter who we voted out?) VOTE KARA
    CANCEL/VOTE JENN (“She’s been under the radar and the comment about forgetting about the game due to her cat seems so weird to me right now.”)

    CONCLUSION D1: Looking back at these comments now, they’re kind of interesting based on what we know. Firstly, Jaha was a character (Town – The Ark). Second, given that Jeann’s Cult status is green and Murphy’s 3rd party status is also green, while Nicole’s Mt. Weather/Mafia status is red, the likelihood that the Cult is Mt. Weather is lower. What does that leave? Based on what others more familiar with the series have said, it seems like A.L.I.E. is a decent bet. What does this mean in regards to what Amber B. said about the two of them? I’m not sure, but like I said, interesting. There’s also the fact that she was casting the Grounds in an anti-Town light based on the S1 finale when, if others are to be believed, they do become more allied with The 100 as time goes on. Considering Amber does know about Allie, I wonder how these two pieces of information come together.

    DAY TWO

    I’m also not suspicious of Kara now so I’m glad she was able to be saved. I need to read over nicole’s comments.

    What changed from D1 to D2? Kara hadn’t commented D2 before Amber did, so I’m not sure at this point why her opinion changed.

    Also, I had a thought but I wonder if the game masters chose Jenn’s answer and that resulted in her death rather than a Mafia kill.

    While on its own I thought that perhaps this might have pointed to Amber perhaps looking for a reason/cover for accidentally eliminating a fellow Townsperson independently, Kerrie and Beth also mentioned this previously when I double checked about eight hours prior.

    Jeann asked Amber this:

    @Amber B – can you explain why you cancelled your vote for Kara (who was in the lead at 5 at that time) for Jenn a bit more? I’m really curious as to what made you more suspicious about Jenn (especially in comparison to Kara) to do so at the time.

    And I can’t see that Amber B. responds, though she does say to Beth:

    I have still been behind in comments toDay but given D1, I’m semi suspect of the Kara voters but also kind of not given I’m not sure what my thoughts on her are. I feel like the statement of “Do not trust Non-Grounders” is extreme as there are multiple factions in the show that are displayed to be “good guys”.

    I don’t understand her suspicions of Kara, nor why those suspicions dropped, especially when on D2 she is saying something like she is suspicious of those that are voting for Kara. Her vote for Jenn was because the cat comment stuck out as weird and Kara “still had enough votes that she could have ended up voted off either way had that happened.” Huh?

    For someone that on D1 said that there are no “good guys”, thinking that Kara saying “do not trust non-Grounders” is extreme sounds a bit weird.

    @ Jeann – My suspicions are very up in the air right now. I do think that Meeghan brought up an interesting correlation between Dana, Megan and Kara as using the word glean.

    This seems to be the most direct comment D2 about her suspicion of Kara.

    CONCLUSION D2: It seems like Amber avoided the question of her suspicion of Kara and the reason for switching to Jenn seemed kind of odd. I think there’s some possibility that Amber might have been a Town aligned person with a kill ability that accidentally took out Jenn, but I have nothing to confirm this, just a soft sus.

    DAY 3

    I’ve been thinking about Greg and I feel like it’s not certain what alliance he is. I was brought back to when Siran was a Mason in a previous game. This could explain his comments on. I wouldn’t be surprised if Masons and Mafia were both talking about all the same people given how busy D2 was with the voting. So, I don’t know really, I want to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

    This marks, I think, the first time that Amber mentions Greg, though I’ve gone through a lot of information in a short amount of time. If this is incorrect, I apologize.

    I don’t know about anyone else but I feel like this whole quick to claim Townie Neighbors thing could be the Mafia trying to save themselves. If they claim they’re Neighbors and Greg couldn’t possibly be, then why would Jeann or Kerys be voted for? So if they are Mafia, they’re really saving themselves here.

    This is a different tact than when I was looking at Greg’s potential chat explanations in that it rather goes after Kerys and Jeann directly to cast aspersions upon their motives. She says to Amber G. that “unless they’re basically securing themselves as Townie because no one is going to contradict them.”

    I know my voting seemed weird to people, which I get, but I don’t go for the non-voting ever. Which I hadn’t noticed yesterDay that Greg hadn’t so that is super weird.

    Note A: I don’t think many, if any, of us would encourage not voting, but Amber B. doesn’t seem to vote for who has her stronger suspicions. And since when has the next highest person on the board been the target of her votes, such as here in D3 when she uses that reasoning for voting for Megan Rose? She voted for Jenn D1 when it wouldn’t have mattered because, as she pointed out, Kara had more than enough votes that it wouldn’t matter anyway, and then votes for someone with few or no votes. Why not do that D3?

    About the possible cult setup, last time this happened, Beth was turned, then typed stuff but couldn’t talk in the Mafia night chat, which I was part of. I don’t think it was mentioned after her death if she’d been a cult member or not. It’s been a while since I played that round.

    When Beth died along with Edward in ADSOM, they were both revealed to be part of the Cultafia. I don’t recall if this was answered in other D3 comments, but not in one of Amber’s, so I’m including the answer here because it’s relevant to her content.

    @Megan I said I was giving Greg the benefit of the doubt because of the irl stuff, not that I didn’t think he couldn’t be Mafia. I am wondering how he knows there is a traitor because according to the roles, only the mafia would know that.

    There are a couple reasons I can think of, many of them not so good. 1. He’s in the Mafia: “The Mafia is usually informed of the Traitor’s existence (but not identity)”. 2. He is the Traitor (naturally that would indicate his knowledge of the Role). 3. He is Informed, as I think he said: “An Informed player is granted additional information about the setup at the start of the game. This additional information usually revolves around the identity of another Town-aligned player, but that may not always be the case.”

    As for the benefit of the doubt, how does this compare to when Jenn was in the hot seat?

    I did jump to his defense quickly because I know how it feels when it seems you’re being targeted. And I know that makes me seem suspicious. As with previous games I am always the first to go overboard with defending my Townie roles and I’ve learned as I go. I was just giving the benefit of the doubt before.

    I do agree with this. When people are in the fire, then I think we tend to get defensive, especially if we know we can help and it’s frustrating not to be able to convince others of that.

    Anyway, as for my suspicions besides Greg. I did think Jeann and Kerys were still suspicious with their quick claiming Neighbor/Mason roles.

    I honestly hate voting toDay but given Greg’s explanations, I am going to once again give the benefit of the doubt. So I’m going to vote for the next person on the board
    VOTE MEGAN

    CONCLUSION D3: Amber seems to waver on her benefit of the doubt. Also her voting over the last couple Days is concerning (see Note A above).

    DAY FOUR

    Hey all. Just checking in to subscribe to comments. One thing, I never realized why people think/thought there was a cult or traitor involved.

    This is an interesting first comment because one of Amber’s comments from D3 was:

    @Megan I said I was giving Greg the benefit of the doubt because of the irl stuff, not that I didn’t think he couldn’t be Mafia. I am wondering how he knows there is a traitor because according to the roles, only the mafia would know that.

    I did end up linking to a post about the cult, but in a response Amber counters that she meant regarding characters in the show being traitors or cult. This could be true, buuuut….

    She votes Kerys based on the theory that the Neighbor chat points to her not being Town as well as Jeann prior to her recruitment.

    CONCLUSION D4: I’m second guessing Amber’s comments today because overall today there’s not a lot to go on, so this is what there is to work with. Combining that with the previous days and I’m kind of starting to wonder.

    CONCLUSION OVERALL: Based on her voting pattern, the response to Greg’s traitor information D3 and the potential backup in D4, I think there’s the chance that whatever chat (if it exists) that Greg is in, Amber is another participant. With the reveal that the Neighbor chat between Kerys and Jeann originated as a total Town-aligned chat, I’m not sure what that means for any potential Greg+ chat.

  42. Thanks for these very thorough breakdowns, @Harker!

    I’m sorry I’m not contributing as much as I feel I ought to…work is taking it out of me, these days. I’ll try to look more at the Kerrie/others connections tomorrow, to see if someone in addition to Amber B and Greg pings on my suspicion radar. I do agree that, of the 9 of us left, likely we have 2 Mafia, 1 Traitor (if Greg is to be believed), and 1-3 Cult (any more anti-Town and the game would be over already).

  43. I’m just going back through all of my notes on Kerrie now that we know she is Mafia, and it’s definitely interesting to see things in a new light.

    Kerrie’s voting pattern:
    D1: Kara
    D2: Siran
    D3: Megan Rose
    D4: Kerys

    Again, all confirmed townies.

    Day 1
    Votes D1: Kerys → cancel → Harker → Kara

    Day 1 comments included:

    Amber G pointed out that A.L.I.E. caused people to hallucinate, and now I’m wondering if someone out there can mess with night action results? Also, Shannon W pointed out that in the show Mt. Weather created reapers out of grounders, so I wonder too if there might be a some kind of cult-recruitment element?

    This is interesting purely because Kerrie presumably went from Goon to Roleblocker (as per the crossed out role). I just don’t know how…?

    I just remember the kids, the adults on the ark, the grounders, and the creepy science people in the mountain. Who are the Ice Nation? Are mountain men the same as Mount Weather? Would grounders and Reapers likely be different factions?

    I feel like this was Kerrie’s way of deflecting conversation away from her *knowing* which team mafia is.

    This makes me wary for two reasons–as others have said the grounders as a group could go either way, and I’m a little wary that this might be an attempt to cast the grounders as a pro-town team.

    Good distraction and trying to throw the grounders under the bus (although admittedly I was thinking the same thing, however the only info I had was that Ark were town).

    I would definitely assume the 100 are town, so if Kara’s to be believed there’s two town groups

    This is where Kerrie threw me, as from this I had Kerrie down as team 100. But, it would be a fair assumption to make on D1 that town is the 100.

    Based on my own information, that leads me to believe there are two town groups: The 100 and the Grounders.

    Kerrie questions Kara over her suspicion of Greg, and also throws Anna’s name out as anti-Grounder asking why vote for Greg and not Anna? At this stage Anna has no votes on the board.
    Based on her trying to throw suspicion on Anna, I would guess that they aren’t on the same team.

    Kerrie votes for Harker (over confusion/suspicion between the two – I didn’t really get it), but then switches to Kara to break the Nicole 5, Kara 5 tie at 5 minutes to go.

    Day 2
    Votes D2: Siran
    Nothing Kerrie said on D2 really stuck out to me, except that she was suspicious of Siran for her choice to ‘not vote’. It was a very ‘under the radar’ Day.

    Day 3
    Votes D3: Greg → Megan Rose
    Kerrie outlines suspicions of Greg, Megan Rose, Meeghan (me), Beth.
    Mentions that my use of “glean” on D1 could be code word. Talks about Beth saying that the Traitor is not important:

    felt like minimizing/trying to divert the conversation from the existence of a traitor

    Kerrie then backtracks on Greg somewhat, and then votes for him anyway:

    It’s why I’m torn about Greg. If he’s mafia, revealing this just tips town off & hurts the mafia. If he’s telling the truth and has an informed town role, telling the town there’s a traitor helps town — as many people argued Day 1, any information is better than no information.

    After Greg’s ‘vote thief’ announcement, Kerrie cancels her vote and switches to Megan Rose, which creates a tie.
    THIS is where my suspicions of Greg come into play. Greg *might* have played us with the vote thief comment. Which means that mafia (teammates) may have been railing at him all day, and then switch votes because of sympathy for the ‘vote thief’ and therefore being unable to defend himself. Admittedly, this is indeed a long shot, but it’s possible.

    Day 4
    Votes D4: Kerys
    Kerrie starts Day 4 saying that she’s sus of Harker for not changing their vote towards end of D3. However, it looks like Harker is right and Jeann was a cultist.
    Kerrie comes back and confirms she is most sus of: Greg, Harker and Kerys.

    Overall
    Kerrie mentions suspicions of:
    * Kara (town)
    * Anna
    * Harker
    * Siran (town)
    * Greg
    * Kerys (town)
    * Meeghan
    * Megan Rose (town)
    * Beth

    To me, this looks a bit like a spaghetti theory (throw it and see what sticks). It is also likely that there is at least one mafia member hiding in this list so that if one was ‘caught’ it would look like they are not teammates.

  44. In saying all of that, NONE of the people I’m most suspicious of are on that list. In fact, the only one that I’m even mildly suspicious of is Greg. (I’m certain that Anna has a role, but I also think she might be town.)

    So, I guess it’s possible that none of them are mafia??

  45. @Meeghan

    Greg *might* have played us with the vote thief comment.

    I can totally see why you might be wary of this, and just to allay concern (for what it’s worth) I just wanna say- this was legit. My vote was stolen, and the only real proof I have is that I didn’t switch my vote at the end of D3 even to save myself- so hopefully that gives you guys a little more confidence that I’m telling the truth there.

  46. .001 maet morf saw ehs taht was I nehw htaed s’nariS fo esuac eht saw I taht elbirret yllaer tlef I .emit eht ta ti tuoba yas dluohs I gnihtyna fi hcum woh erus t’nsaw I tub ,shtaed thgin artxe esoht rof tluaf ta saw I taht wenk I esuaceb taht fo erus saw I .aifatluc I naht rehtar tluc a si tluc eht gnikniht tuoba tnemmoc ym rof sA

    .thgin eht ni deneppah tahw wonk t’nod ew sa seitilibissop tnereffid redisnoc ot gnitseretni saw ti woh gnikniht yllareneg tsuj saw I

    revoc a ekil ,egats siht ta ma I sa suoicipsus ,sleef hcihw nneJ ot deneppah tahw fo seitilibissop eht gnidrager seiroeht s’hteB htiw deerga ehS

    .emit eht ta tsom em ot tuo doots tsuj taht owt eht erew esoht em ot esuaceb gerG dna nageM neewteb esoohc ot dah I yllanosrep tlef I

    .maet nwot a fo trap eb ot tuo denrut ehs ecnis nneJ tsol ew yrros yllareneg saw I deid dah nneJ taht was I nehw oS .emit eht a htiw elbatrofmoc tsom tlef I noisiced eht saw ti dna snoicipsus gnorts yna evah t’ndid I esuaceb yltsom saw ti tub 1D nneJ rof etov did I
    rekraH@

    .taht tuoba yrroS .sthguoht ym gnireffo dna gnitnemmoc ta dab yrev neeb ev’I ralucitrap ni emag siht ni leef I yakO

  47. @Anna: are you confirming Meeghan’s theory with this last comment, then? About your votes being linked to people dying in the Night? Or only the deaths when there were more than one? Whatever the case, this does read something like taking some sort of responsibility.

  48. @Meeghan

    Kerrie comes back and confirms she is most sus of: Greg, Harker and Kerys.

    I think this is why I’m slightly less suspicious of Greg right now. I don’t think the vote thief thing was a ploy, but having had his vote stolen doesn’t mean he’s Town.
    But Kerrie voting for him and talking about her suspicion of him 2 days in a row makes me hesitant to go charging after Greg. At least not right now. It feels like an unnecessary risk for Kerrie to have taken, if they’re the same team.

    @Anna

    I was sure of that because I knew that I was at fault for those extra night deaths, but I wasn’t sure how much if anything I should say about it at the time.

    Since we’re down to the wire here, can you speak a bit more about this?
    (I say we’re down to the wire because if there’s 2 Mafia, a Traitor, and 3 Cult, then losing a Townie today will cost us the game.)

  49. I’m so confused… when I saw @Anna’s comment earlier it was normal, now it is completely in reverse and backwards… Anna? What’s going on?!

  50. Ohhh, Shannon, you’re right! 😮 That’s not good. I’m guessing a punishment from a Night Action, tbh. xD It reminds me of the emoji one I got from a button.

    It’s not only backwards but it’s now top to bottom as well. It looks as though the content is the same, I think. Reading again to verify, Anna, I’m hoping you’ll come back to confirm what you can. My second reading makes me think you’re only confirming you’re responsible for Siran’s death?

  51. Yikes, @Anna!
    I’m guessing this is an Insanity-style effect, either from a Night story action, or…maybe someone else has the ability to hit other players with 1x effects (the same person who afflicted Greg with a vote theft, perhaps?), which is why we’re not seeing the same effect Day after Day.

  52. Kerrie actions in relation to others:
    I mentioned in https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/02/03/the-100-day-four/#comment-79682 that the Siran discussion felt like a Mafia-led distraction.
    The two players that participated in that discussion whose alignment is still unknown and who I think have the strongest chance of being Mafia are Amber B and Maria (Anna being the first to vote Siran, and also her statement today, makes me think Anna is Town).

    On D1, Kerrie changed her vote to break a tie ( https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/01/13/the-100-day-one/#comment-79044 ), but on D3 she tied it with the reason given (on D4) that she wanted to see if Harker would break the tie. This makes me think they aren’t on the same team, meaning Harker isn’t Mafia.

    Voted for confirmed Townies (Shannon noted this in https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/02/10/30952/#comment-79977 but I’m reposting here for clarity):
    Voted for Siran: Kerrie, Kara, Dana, Anna
Voted for Jenn: Jeann, Anna, Maria, Amber B
Voted for Kara: Amber G (twice), Kerys, Greg (twice), Nicole, Meeghan, Amber B, Dana, Kerrie
Voted for Megan: Maria (twice), Dana, Anne, Meeghan, Amber B, Kerrie, Kerys, Anna
    Voted for Kerys: Kerrie (twice), Greg, Harker, Maria, Amber B
    Voted for Amber G: Beth
    
Players who voted for 4/6 confirmed Townies: Kerrie (Mafia), Amber B
    Players who voted for 3/6 confirmed Townies: Dana (Anti-Town), Anna, Maria

    I’m a bit thrown by Anna’s admission about being the cause of some overNight Town deaths. On the one hand, you wouldn’t admit that unless you had to, because it does make you look anti-Town. On the other hand, she’s voted for 3/6 confirmed Townies, as has Maria.

    Cult stuff:
    I would think someone in the Cult would shy away from talking about it, to keep from associating themselves with the existence of it before it was confirmed that we have one this round.
    Of those still alive, this is who mentioned the possibility of a Cult before it was confirmed: Harker, Beth, Meeghan, Greg, Anne, Amber B, Maria

    Those who didn’t: Shannon and Anna
    I haven’t been suspicious of either of them….as Mafia.
    But now I’m starting to wonder if one or both of them are Cult.

    TL;DR
    So my suspicions are now:
    Amber B (Mafia)
    Maria (maybe Mafia)
    Shannon (maybe Cult)
    Anna (maybe Cult)

  53. Jos gaf in gon miya snap en biyo ai ste hosen kom hou gon heimbri disha sonop en seintaim gada in tro gon bro kiom ai hapotei deyon ba kom au breik au gontaim disha sonau gon vout prom kom ai en chichplei hashta sos kom ai.

  54. Well that got worse. 😆 I think it is Trigedasleng, the language of Grounders. Whether it is also backwards or otherwise jumbled, I’m not sure. The translator doesn’t seem to really recognize the words, so I don’t know if Anna’s actual comment was changed after she posted it.

  55. Yep, that’s Trig….very clever, Shannon M! 😀
    It’s more of a patois in the series, so not unintelligible, but gonna make it difficult to understand Anna. I don’t think this effect is a reflection on her alignment, especially given the first comment was mirrored and upside down.

    @Harker There’s words in there I don’t recognize, but I *think* it’s the same comment about being busy with her brother and going to come back after dishes and whatnot.

  56. Here is Beth’s post. I’m sorry it took so long, but comparatively speaking Beth is more verbose than the previous entrants.

    I’m also not sure if I’m going to get to everyone remaining before the deadline. I haven’t been feeling well today (a bit nauseous), so I’m trying my best but if I can’t, I can’t. At this point I should still have work in the morning, so I will try to get another post up tomorrow.

    Beth

    Final Votes by Day: Nicole (success), Dana (success), Greg, no vote

    DAY ONE

    1.

    But you’re right- there’s a LOT of killing. There’s also (I think) the potential for independent anti-Town roles (like maybe Murphy…although the obvious choice for that role is Survivor, which isn’t necessarily anti-Town).

    2.

    Jenn has yet to comment and cast her first vote….the rest of us have done so, if that’s a thing to be noted.

    Talks about the possibility of A.L.I.E. replying to me, multiple teams replying to Kara, distinguishes Ice Nation apart from Grounders as a whole as a potential anti-Town group, and Shannon for en masse killings (yikes): https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/01/13/the-100-day-one/#comment-78824.

    Another comment in response to one of Kara’s which says “My only fact at this point in time is my role. The next fact will be revealed at the start of day two.”:

    Bold of you to assume we won’t be able to protect the night kill target. Ooooor you’re hinting that you’re an informed role and possibly making yourself a target, which worries me.

    It’s kind of funny in retrospect that Beth says this when Kara was the one who was the Bodyguard. I don’t know if there’s another protective role that maybe Beth knew about at the time, but the fact that she said it to the one that we now know about… 😂

    Confirms to Nicole that Mt. Weather are bad for The 100 and Grounders (using them as living dialysis machines/make Reapers). Also speculates on possible groups to Kerrie:

    The Ark adults
    The Ark kids
    Grounders (In S1 they’re enemies of The 100, but then it’s more like: Trikru/allies of The 100; Ice Nation/enemies of The 100)
    Mount Weather/Mountain Men (pretty solidly bad guys throughout their entire plot arc)
    Reapers (not really a coalition, more like mindless zombie weapons created by the above)
    The City of Light (aforementioned Jaha cult)

    She summarizes people’s comment totals but doesn’t think we should put too much stock in them at this point. Asks Amber G. why she calls out Siran, Jenn, and Dana, who all posted 3 comments by the time Amber had posted: why them when there were others that had also commented 3 times and one (Meeghan) that had commented less?

    Asks Kara why she is suspicious of her (Beth):

    To clarify, you are suspicious of me because I brought up the fact that Ice Nation, in the show, is a faction of Grounders that are enemies (of both the 100 and the rest of the Grounders)? I’m trying to understand why my bringing up the possibility of Ice Nation as an anti-Town group (or role, even) makes me suspicious.

    Next comment:

    @Kara: I think you might’ve missed where I separated them as two distinct things- Grounders, and Ice Nation. At the time, we were hypothesizing multiple teams (like in the ADSOM game) and listing out possible Mafia and anti-Town groups that could be in play here. I think it’d be a mistake to assume we have one set of good guys and one set of bad guys- I’ve seen that happen in previous editions of TBG and Town got blindsided because of it.
    So I think collectively we’ve come up with a list of potential anti-Town factions:
    Mt Weather/Mountain Men
    Ice Nation
    City of Light/ALIE

    To Nicole:

    Based on the show, the fact that our gamemasters love to throw chaos at us, and taking into account Kara’s comments and others’ reactions to them, yes, I think it’s very likely that there are at least two Town/pro-Town groups and at least two anti-Town groups (or a Mafia group and an anti-Town role).

    Comments about the votes on the board, the reasons for a couple of them, inquiries about those that don’t seem to have a reason yet. Talks about how she and Siran have both speculated about Murphy (whether Town or Mafia), but with the different role/character combos speculation at this point feels a little pointless. Does a post that really looks at S1-3 Murphy and accurately pegs him as the Survivor (though anyone that’s very familiar with the character may have come to the conclusion).

    Summarizes: dislikes ties generally, chances are high that Kara is Town, doesn’t think Greg is suspicious for his speculation, noted that Megan boldly stated that Town was The 100, who was thought to be Grounder v. not Grounder, and things that stand out to her that Day. Seems to doubt her vote because the votes on the board have good reasoning to her. Ends up cancelling her vote to switch to Nicole because the comment about being genuine but still voting for someone is suspicious enough to warrant a vote.

    CONCLUSION DAY ONE: Looking back at this Day, I would say that it looks like Beth is probably a Townsperson. If I had to guess, my first instinct was the Ark, though a Grounder is also a possibility (this could be muddled by the fact that she knows a lot about the show).

    Also Beth talks a lot. 😆

    DAY TWO

    Starts off looking at notable Nicole quotes. Wonders if there is a connection between Megan and Nicole because Nicole seemed to ultimately agree with Megan’s speculation that Mt. Weather would be the logical choice after initially expressing suspicion. Given that Nicole was revealed as a Mt. Weather goon:

    But this makes me wonder if Megan might also be Mount Weather/Mafia? And Nicole is supporting her or allying herself with Megan, by insinuating she considered Megan as a suspect but then dismissed her suspicion?

    Beth continues to look at some of the action around Nicole.

    Jeann is the first to point out Nicole’s contradictory statement/vote, and to vote for Nicole based on that.
    Everyone else who voted for Nicole did so based on Jeann’s catching that red flag.
    So I think Jeann is NOT Mount Weather/Mafia, based on that.

    I wonder if it was N2 that was when Jeann was turned, possibly based on something like this? If the theory that the Cult can only turn Grounders holds true, which we’re not sure of yet, then based on another comment of Beth’s:

    Yes, you could throw a teammate under the bus and later say you’re not suspicious of them after all, in order to distance yourself from that teammate, but Jeann’s argument is so certain and pointed that I don’t think that’s what happened.

    This leads me to put a tic in the column of why they might have wanted Jeann on their side.

    Potentially important quote(s):

    1.

    I’m generally suspicious of people who change their last-minute votes to cause a tie or in a way that has no reasoning associated with it, as oftentimes it’s to protect a teammate.

    2.

    Based on things Nicole said and others’ interpretation of Nicole, I think:
    Jeann, Kara, Jenn, Kerys, and Harker are NOT Mafia.

    What is the likelihood that Beth would get that many people right (ignoring for the moment that Jeann ends up being recruited)?

    3.

    – It was a Mafia kill: either they targeted her directly, or Mafia can make more than 1 night kill, and Jenn wasn’t protected.
    – It was the mods: Jenn did the Night Action story option the mods gave us, and it resulted in her death.
    – It was the result of her or another character’s power: This is more of a long shot, but we’ve seen this in other TBG editions, where a power “backfires” somehow and kills someone.

    @Beth: we hadn’t had more than one Night kill at this point. What made you think that this could be a possibility, that they were aiming to make multiple kills and someone was protected, thus didn’t die, and Jenn wasn’t so did?

    It’s possible that means Greg or Meeghan are Mafia, and Jenn’s death was deliberately to lend credence to her argument. Although….that seems like overkill, because she was correct about Nicole and therefore we’d already be inclined to believe her re: Greg and Meeghan.

    Given the rise in suspicion around Greg in recent days, Beth, I’m curious what you think about this comment you made D2. I’m not including Meeghan for the moment, though she is mentioned in the same comment, because so far as I remember as of this writing she does not have the same level of talk/suspicion that Greg does.

    Points out that those who were openly suspicious of Jenn and/or voted for her include Amber G. (Amber called Jenn out for being quiet), Anna (voted Jenn for not meeting comment minimum), Maria (voted Jenn because she was suspicious of Jenn’s statement that those voting for Kara must be non-Grounders), and Amber B. (voted Jenn as suspicious for being under the radar.the cat comment).

    In a reply to Maria, she makes this comment:

    Do you mean that a role from team Ark and a role from team Grounders might be in communication, or do you mean that there might be a Mason situation (where they have a private group Chat of their own)?

    At this point, it strikes me that Beth is making some amazingly accurate predictions that have come to fruition, almost scarily so. An Ark/Grounders chat (Kerys (The Ark) and Jeann (Grounders)), the not-Mafia people toDay (2), the comment she made to Kara about the Bodyguard (which, granted, might be a stretch, but taken together with these other things make me wonder).

    Maybe Anna and Amber G are on the same team, subtly pointing toward Jenn’s death being a mistake made by a Town faction, to take attention off any accurate conclusions being drawn from Jenn’s death?

    D5, Anna seems to have claimed responsibility for Siran’s death, possibly Jenn’s? As of writing this I’m waiting for confirmation on that, but if she does, this is another comment of Beth’s that is either interesting (whether for her or Anna, who’s to say right now).

    To Kara:

    Forgive me being dense…this would mean that on D1 at least one person voting for you was Mafia, or would mean at least one person voting for Nicole was Mafia? Or neither (and it was solely to block us getting info about Nicole)?

    Kara: Amber G. (Town), Kerrie (Mafia) , Meeghan (Town), Nicole (Mafia), Greg
    Nicole: Kara (Town), Beth, Dana (3rd), Harker, Kerys (Town), Jenn (Town)

    It turns out that at least 2 (now confirmed) Mafia voted for Kara D1 while Nicole was largely voted for by Town.

    CONCLUSION DAY TWO: Beth has made some really good predictions. That’s a little eerie at this stage in the game, not going to lie. 😂😅

    DAY THREE

    Beth starts out with this:

    And now there’s the question of whether the two deaths were a multi-character Mafia hit, a Mafia kill + other team kill, a Mafia kill + random effect from the Night Action story kill (which could’ve been the result of N1 *or* N2), Night Action story kill + other team kill….or something else entirely.

    Logical. The after action report is going to be interesting because I don’t think we’ve seen much evidence during the days of whatever the Night Action stories have wrought, with the possible exception of Anna’s D5 text effect.

    Yeah but Kara was revealed to be Town/pro-Town (she’s team Grounder, but look at the color of the gem on the headstone for her, Jenn, and Siran- they’re the same yellow).

    I think she is the first, or at least one of the first, to bring up the gem colors in correlation with team alignment.

    Expresses confusion regarding Greg.

    I’m torn about Greg. I haven’t found his behavior suspicious, and while Amber G’s info was confirmed (thanks, Amber G!), he could be a Mason or a Neighbor (as Harker pointed out).
    Masons are Town, Neighbors can be mixed Town and Mafia. Having Masons can be a huge boon for Town because it’s 2 additional days (during the Night round) of people who know they’re all Town, sharing information and theories.

    Two of the below people have been confirmed (Kerrie/Mafia, Kerys/Town). Otherwise, Beth does still have suspicion for Amber B. and Maria iirc. It wouldn’t have been to take heat off Megan because, as we found, she was also Town, so that could leave the question of Amber and Greg.

    It was interesting to me that, in talking about Siran’s not voting on D2 being suspicious, Anna, Kerrie, Amber G, Amber B, Maria, and Kerys didn’t mention Greg or Megan (who also didn’t vote). Felt a bit like a distraction tactic (to take the heat off Amber B, Megan, or Greg, perhaps? They were the most talked about in D2).

    Kerys at this point comments about how she and Jeann had talked about revealing themselves, so Beth thanks her for that information. Her next post is about Greg for the most part (https://tinyurl.com/ehpp18jq):

    @Kerys Ah, OK…thanks for letting me know. Well, I agree that it’s unlikely we’d have a Neighbor Chat *and* a Mason Chat (or two Neighbor Chats), although I try not to put anything past our mods. Which increases the case against Greg.

    Greg reveals that there is a Traitor. Beth posts the Role information so that everyone is on the same page. She comments about how it is harder to weed out/kill a Traitor because the Mafia at least is working together, so this information feels like saying “trust no one”.

    In order to believe you’re Town at this point, I have to believe that Amber G and Kerys and/or Jeann are Mafia and coordinated this. And I haven’t been suspicious of Kerys or Jeann this entire game.

    After this, she votes Greg.

    Note: given her previous track record at guessing/predicting/whatever we want to call it, I would not be surprised in the least if Greg turns out to not be Town. Or that Beth has some incredible Roles this game because she is seriously on fire.

    @Kerrie:

    “I think the info about a traitor is valuable and is a data point we can use. I find it suspicious that Beth is trying to downplay the value of this information.”
    I would love to hear your thoughts on what we aren’t already doing, that we can do right now, to root out the Traitor. As you know from my statement, I don’t know what to do with that information right now. But if you do…please, let us know!

    Well, we now know why Kerrie might think that this was valuable information: because it could benefit her and her teammates. She ended up being eliminated N4 and as she was Mafia, it had to come from somewhere else. Did someone else pick up on this tidbit here and decide to take a chance? Kerrie says that we can be on the lookout for some kind of code that the Mafia and the Traitor might be using to identify each other in the chat to which Beth replies:

    I’m not sure I follow this, to be honest. If the Traitor knows who is Mafia (and they might not), but Mafia doesn’t know who the Traitor is, then how could they then establish a code? It seems far more likely to me that the Traitor would simply do Mafia-like things (bandwagon, vote at the last minute to protect a teammate or obfuscate information, speculate on others to distract from Mafia, etc.)

    I think, if I read the Role page correctly, that usually the Mafia knows that there is a Traitor but not who it is, while the Traitor does not know who is in the Mafia. The risk is that the Mafia might kill their ally and the Traitor has the same goal as the Mafia but none of the backup.

    Beth brings up the people that are suspicious of Amber B., wonders whether they still are, and how:

    I don’t feel like she adequately assuaged those concerns yesterDay, and some of her behavior toDay after Kerys and Jeann revealed their info, in support of Amber G’s info reveal about Greg, has stuck out as suspicious.

    In a comment to Anne, who is wondering about Greg revealing his Traitor information and why if he was Mafia, what would he gain from it:

    That assumes he’s telling the truth about the existence of a Traitor. This Informed role information isn’t something that can be verified by others, doesn’t point us toward a specific person, doesn’t have a big impact on how we work to get Mafia out, doesn’t help us protect or plan ahead for possible anti-Town Night actions, etc. So he could be taking a wild guess (as Town, or as Mafia) to buy himself time. Or he’s Mafia and this could be a red herring. Or, he could be telling the truth and he just doesn’t have any way to “prove” he’s Town.

    CONCLUSION D3: there’s a spread of analysis this day. Like I noted when she was talking to Greg, at one point she said in order to believe he was Town she would have to believe that certain others were Mafia and coordinating, others who turned out to be Town. Given her theory record to this point, it feels poignant.

    DAY FOUR

    Begins the day with the thought that the Siran discussion EOD2 was a setup to take the heat off potential Mafia members D3 and lists people that were in the hot seat: Megan Rose (now known Town), Amber B., and Greg. She looks into those who talked about their suspicion/voted for Siran: Anna, Kerrie (Mafia), Amber G. (Town), Amber B., Maria, Kara (Town), Kerys (Town), Dana (3rd), Megan Rose (Town). Note: alliances are my own notes as of D5. At the time of writing, public knowledge only knew about Megan Rose, Kara, and Dana.

    To be clear, I don’t think everyone who was bringing up chatter about Siran is Mafia, but I do think 1-2 people in that list are, based on them keeping the beach ball in the air for the final 40 minutes or so.

    Kara, Kerrie, Dana, and Anna voted for Siran D2.

    Especially those who talked about her but didn’t vote for her (which seems like a great way to diffuse any further conversation about a suspected Mafia member without having a vote that could be counted against them in analysis tallies).

    Beth talks about some of Kerrie’s actions that make her more suspicious of her:

    Additionally, on D3 Kerrie’s vote switch from Greg to Megan was, by her explanation, a move to tie so that we “didn’t lose another town player”. On D1, Kerrie changed her vote at -5 minutes specifically to break a tie (https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/01/13/the-100-day-one/#comment-79044).

    It feels suspicious that toDay she says she tied it in order to see whether Harker would break the tie. That means Kerrie was watching the EOD closely, which means she could’ve changed her vote at the last moment, after it was clear that Harker wasn’t taking the bait, back to Greg who she says she was most suspicious of.

    I’m not sure that Beth would be looking this intently into Kerrie if they were the same team, though to be fair she could be setting it up to look that way.

    Another comment is Beth looking into the Cult theory. There’s not a lot there other than Beth saying that it throws a wrench in people who were previously seen as safe/Town because anyone could, theoretically, be recruited at Night.

    If Jeann was already a Cult member when their Neighbor chat was revealed on D3, it feels like Kerys would’ve been the next logical choice to recruit (because Town seemed to have settled on believing both Jeann and Kerys were Town, based on their info reveal).

    This didn’t end up being true, though it did seem logical at the time.

    In talking to Meeghan, expresses that she is still suspicious of Greg and Amber B., also a bit of Kerys because of the potential Cult thing though:

    I don’t find Shannon suspicious right now, and though I can see a scenario where Kerys is Cult, that’s the only thing that makes me suspicious about her and it doesn’t feel enough for a vote.

    She has this to say about the potential Vote Thief/Night Action Story thing regarding Greg allegedly being forced to vote for me:

    So I did notice a thing which may be totally coincidence, or it may be significant. Harker was the last person to comment at EOD2. Perhaps Greg played the extra game and his “prize” was that on D3 he had to vote for the last person to comment on the day before? That would go back to ‘Greg could be any alignment’.

    Beth goes on to address some of Meeghan’s post about her, followed by Shannon during which she compiles a list of everyone who, to that point, has voted for a Townie: https://tinyurl.com/2z8qdfu2, later amended to include a missed vote: https://tinyurl.com/5davuj7u.

    Responds to Kerys’s guarded comment about it not being in the Town’s best interest to vote her off (which now makes explicit sense as Kerys has been revealed as a Governor, able to stop Lynchings during the Day). Wonders if Kerys had an extra ability aside from being a Neighbor.

    Kerys, if you’re protected in some way and that’s your power, then having the majority of votes won’t kill you (a la Siran in ADSOM), so I’m not sure why you’re doing this Hail Mary thing…?

    That really begs the question, what went wrong? Aside from other weirdness, Kerys was clearly under the impression she would be going home, so what stopped her Governorship from taking effect? Is there a freezing effect from another Role that goes into the following Day that someone could have penalized her with without her knowing?

    Right, I’m more suspicious of Kerrie than Greg right now, and if Kerrie *is* Mafia as I think she is, I’m guessing my voting for her today will result in my death toNight. But it’s down to Greg and Kerys. And I suspect Greg slightly more than Kerys, at this point, so:
    CANCEL VOTE
    VOTE GREG

    Beth cancelling her vote, because she is not okay with a tie, is what ends up sending Kerys home.

    CONCLUSION D4: Beth has never been fine with ties so far as I can remember, though she also hasn’t with not voting, so I imagine that EOD4 was something of a trial.

    CONCLUSION OVERALL: I don’t think that she and Greg are on the same team. Even though the cancelled vote at the EOD essentially saved him, it seems like she would have allowed the vote to go through had it not been tied.

    The point I made in D2 about how she would get so many people’s alignments right could have a darker turn (i.e. if she were Mafia she would know who isn’t), but that seems insanely risky to just throw out that many accurate names if you are Mafia. It looks like you’re playing with a loaded deck.

    I’m inclined to think that Beth is Town at this point, leaning toward The 100 because I’m not sure what Ark characters remain that would be important enough besides Jaha or Kane to be here when there are still 100/Grounders that could be named (up to S1), plus whoever appears in S2-3. There could be, but I don’t know who they’d be, so please forgive me if I’m not there yet.

  57. @Beth not sure why you would be suspicious of me being Cult, I am the one the bright up Mt. Weather turning Grounders into Reapers which many people said sounded like a potential cult aspect. I didn’t specifically say the word Cult, but I assure you I am not in it.

  58. @Harker I hope you feel better soon! Sorry I talk so much. 😉

    @Beth: we hadn’t had more than one Night kill at this point. What made you think that this could be a possibility, that they were aiming to make multiple kills and someone was protected, thus didn’t die, and Jenn wasn’t so did?

    I explained my reasoning in response to Meeghan’s similar question, here: https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/02/03/the-100-day-four/#comment-79847
    Here it is again:

    For my part, I listed out the possible reasons for Jenn’s death precisely *because* Jenn didn’t really say much on D1 that would make her a target, IMO. Which made me think she wasn’t necessarily targeted by Mafia (I figured Kara was targeted and protected on N1), so I was trying to consider what else might’ve caused a Night death. One of the 3 options I listed touched on the fact that she *or another character* might’ve done something that resulted in her Night death (her power could’ve backfired somehow, or there could be a third-party killer like Poisoner, or there could be a passive ability that resulted in her death when she, as a Cop, investigated a specific person- all of which we’ve seen in previous TBG). The fact that there were two Night deaths on N2 has not alleviated my concern about this possibility.

    @Harker

    Given the rise in suspicion around Greg in recent days, Beth, I’m curious what you think about this comment you made D2.

    So that quote was in the middle of me breaking down why Jenn may have been a target. Jenn had said she was going to look into those voting for Kara, and then followed it up with saying Greg may be The 100 or Ark and Meeghan may be Ark. And then she voted for Nicole.

    I don’t know why Jenn was killed N1. Others have theorized it was a distraction or to obfuscate information. It’s possible Anna’s whatever-power killed Jenn (if the Mafia’s intended target was protected- yes, a game can have more than one protective role). I still feel like killing Jenn on N1 in order to make Greg and Meeghan look Town is a weak theory- Jenn wasn’t a leader of the conversation on D1, and didn’t say much, so she likely wouldn’t have had much sway with the voting.

    As far as suspicion I have for Greg….to be honest, I’m mildly suspicious of him still. He cropped up in a lot of my earlier analysis, but less so as the game has gone on. I’d say I’m as suspicious of him right now as I am of Anna and Maria. I’m far more suspicious of Amber B. I’m not at all suspicious of Meeghan.

    @Harker

    At this point, it strikes me that Beth is making some amazingly accurate predictions that have come to fruition, almost scarily so. 

    Much though I appreciate the compliment, I didn’t say that was happening, Maria did. I was asking for clarification from her, based on her original phrasing which was confusing me. She said:

    So my thought could be that:
    a) Despite that she’s non grounders she doesn’t vote for Kara, could it be The Ark role is to protect the grounders? (not sure if that is something with the series)
    b) or both of grounders and non-grounders are working together already?

    As far as the “Town role that may be accidentally Night killing people”, which it sounds like Anna may have, I brought that up as a possibility for Jenn’s death, and told y’all that in a previous TBG that was me- I was a Town Poisoner and I chose my targets poorly (Megan can confirm!) because I wasn’t being good enough with the analysis. So I don’t think that’s me being an oracle so much as me having played a lot of TBG. 😉

    @Harker

    CONCLUSION D4: Beth has never been fine with ties so far as I can remember, though she also hasn’t with not voting, so I imagine that EOD4 was something of a trial.

    I was literally shrieking at my laptop. Ugh. What a mess (of me not paying attention to the impact of my vote). I’m sure my neighbors thought I was losing my mind. 😀

    @Shannon You know what- you’re right, you did and that speculation directly impacted the Cult conversation. Mea culpa- I was searching the word ‘cult’ and not thinking about the larger picture there.

  59. I may need someone to translate Anna’s second comment that’s not backward one 😂 Gosh I’m so bad at this.

    Also, I know it’s late and sounds like I’m voicing out @Harker’s theory but I was thinking of Anne possible converted in D4
    @Harker: Happy CNY too from here!

    I just thought that in Days before she wasn’t referring to Greg and then in D4; voted him. Or maybe she had thought of that and just brought it in D4.

    But I don’t think she’s the cult leader right now.

    I’m not sure. Should we try to find someone who’s possible cult leader at this point? Maybe if we find the leader then all the cultists will die too? (I think it happened in the ADSOM game?)

    Shannon is consistent in her voting for Greg so I’m more inclined that she might be town. Or she could be the cult leader giving instructions to vote for Greg to her cultists. Cause Greg is most likely the best option as Amber G mentioned of his night chat.

    Okay going to write properly later at laptop;

  60. @Beth: I see what you mean about Maria’s comment and looked at that time again. I think her’s was a bit more bit picture whereas you brought it to a focus with yours. Whatever the outcome, your experience as a player is definitely stacked up. 😂

    I just find that statement of Jenn is quite irk me that time. I mean we don’t know each other’s role (except our own) and despite it maybe true that it’s weird to vote if you’re in the same team. But again we don’t know each other’s role and Kara is quick to put herself in spotlight. So there could be many things going on, plus the calculated risks she mentioned made me bit worried.

    @Maria: I think the ADSOM situation was unique because it was a Cultafia situation or something because I believe the Cult role page says something along the lines of the Cultists can still win if the Leader dies, they just cannot recruit any longer.

    Are we allowed to translate the posts or will that mess up too? The email notifications send unaltered so those should be seen by whoever has them set up.

  61. Hey all, sorry I’ve been so MIA toDay. It’s been a busy week with work but I’ll be back in the morning. I know I was @ed a few times so I’ll come back and reply.

    Also, huge Kudos to Shannon M for the Trig translation!

  62. @Maria – in response to your comment:

    I find your note about Greg never really mentioned much about his night chat, looking at it now. what are your thoughts of that?

    I’m not entirely sure what you mean by this. Greg said a number of times on D3 that is wasn’t a night chat – he brought it up himself – so I don’t really have any thoughts on it, and no one has claimed to be his chat partner, so I feel like unless we have any more info this lead is a bit dead.

    Do you know specifically if it is a ‘Night chat’? Any information you share could be valuable.

    Additionally, your comments toDay seem highly vested in finding out who the Cult is and voting them out first. This is understandable as I’m also keen to do this. However, since it’s possible that Cult can also turn mafia members, it does make me wonder if this is more of a priority for you.

    I’d love to hear your thoughts on finding and voting out mafia members too, because I don’t think you have shared any.

  63. Also, I forgot to sign up for comments at the start of toDay, so I have zero idea what Anna’s second and third comments say. Sneaky, sneaky mods though!! 👀

  64. Blast! I ‘ad a comment typed out an’ then accidentally scuttled it. 🙁

    I’m just goin’ t’ write this as if someone will be able t’ read this because I ‘ave no idea what be goin’ on. My only thought about why this has been ‘appenin’ be that maybe th’ result o’ th’ night event. But I ‘aven’t the foggiest. Also just can’t ‘elp but laugh because this be about th’ craziest thin’ that has ‘appened t’ me in one o’ these games. Aarrr!

    So I don’t be knowin’ if this will be read before it be changed or be able t’ be translated at all once changed.

    I spent time combin’ past days comments with a focus on th’ ones who ‘ad voted Kerys. Yo-ho-ho!

    ‘arker isn’t someone I find suspicious, by Blackbeard’s sword! They have been a sailin’ force behind tryin’ t’ find and eliminate th’ pirate cult. I would say I’m undecided about Greg. I ‘aven’t found that scurvey dog overly suspicious but there ‘as been a lot o’ attention on that scurvey dog an’ ‘e ‘as managed t’ escape bein’ voted out several days which be either just a lucky escape fer a town member who ‘as served as a distraction fer th’ mafia/cult or good saves as part o’ th’ mafia/cult, by Davy Jones’ locker. At th’ moment I’m leanin’ towards more that ‘e be town.

    With Kerrie swimmin with th’ fishes that leaves Amber B and Marie. Yaaarrrrr! At th’ moment I’m leanin’ more towards Maria, shiver me timbers! It could ‘ave been just a coincidence that Marie ‘ad a similar opinion t’ Kerrie not long aft the wench voted fer Kerys but it also seems likely that th’ mafia could ‘ave banded together, them lily-livered scallywags.

    So at th’ moment I’m goin’ t’

    WALK THE PLANK: MARIA

    Why is the rum always gone?

  65. Anna: at the moment I can see your comment, plus I see the email so we’re good there.

    I’m sorry if I missed an earlier post but if you could, refresh my memory. This latest comment you left out a few people and I was wondering, what are your thoughts on them? You’d said that leaves Amber and Maria, which is why it caught my attention that some name were missing: Anne, Beth, Meeghan, Shannon.

  66. @Meeghan: I guess because Jeann mentioned about Greg’s night chat thing and then it stuck to me that it’s night chat instead of just private chat. I read again in the eavesdropper role that it just private chat so it could be both. Idk.

    Greg also mentioned in here:

    And how do you know I’ve been “very active” in my Night chat? Amber reported two things I said.

    I kind of feel that you’re overlooking Greg’s comment at some point and defending him in a way, but it could just be me.

    It’s fine either way for me. It just my mind was thinking that if it’s mafia, they will only kill the town at night (or they could do something else if they have other power?).

    This is based on the assumption that the cult can only turn certain group and if they turn other team, then the other team would be killed. Which was I think even more dangerous, that means if we keep them and the mafia alive, we might have 1 death 1 town turn to cultist or even 2 deaths.

    But with what Anna said just now that she might be the one responsible for the deaths, could be that it was her doing the deaths maybe cause of the insanity or random power that work on even night (as noticed by Harker?)

    @Anna:
    I just didn’t refresh my comment and now it was used against me that I was in the same with Kerrie? 😂

    Plus, why no one mentioned that it was @Meeghan who was the first one who brought the Neighbor thing? I also mentioned this on D4 to address Anne

    https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/02/03/the-100-day-four/#comment-79802

    Sorry, I sound frustrated, but it was purely coincidental 🤷

    And tbh, I don’t think you mentioned about this in D4 and now you’re bring it up against me so….

    But if Meeghan’s theory that whoever Anna voted will die so I guess this is for me 😂

  67. Ok, this is it for me, as it’s 1am here. I was planning to vote for Maria, but since Anna is voting for her, maybe I’m going to vote for the person next on my suspicion list.

    VOTE AMBER B

    Also, still not sure what’s going on with Anna but it looks like she might be a pirate now…?

    I really hope this is just an unfortunate side effect of one of the Night games?!?

    Good luck town. I feel like we’re getting to the pointy end of things now.

  68. Voting Update:

    Greg (1) — Anne
    Amber B (2) — Beth, Meeghan
    Maria (1) — Anna

    Not voting: Harker, Greg, Amber B, Shannon, Maria

    Just under 5 hours to go!

  69. @Maria – i asked if Greg’s chat COULD BE the Cult chat. I didn’t say that it was. It was a possible theory, just like I’ve questioned a bunch of things.

    Why are you so stuck on me not wanting to discuss the Greg’s “night” chat? And why do you keep calling it a night chat when Greg has said multiple times that it’s an all-the-time chat?

    Yes, Greg could 100% be lying, but if this is a mafia deflection stance then I suggest you find something a bit more concrete to come at me with, as this seems a bit flimsy.

  70. If we have 9 people
    assuming 2 mafia left ( i think it will be too much with 5 mafias if we have 3rd party and also cult) + 1 traitor
    and that we have 2 cultists (assuming that the 2nd death is the cult failed recruited : max 5 – 2 deaths – 1 Jeann = 2cultists)

    If we vote the mafia right now then we will have 2 ( 1 traitor inc) in the mafia team
    and since it’s not even night, so there’s a chance for the cultists to turn someone so we will have 3 cultists

    Well, with 7 people (1 night death); then we’ll have
    2 mafia teams, 3 cults; 2 town

    if we find the cultist leader, the situation would be in D6:
    1 cult (assuming that they won’t die if the cultist leader was lynched out) + 2 mafias + 1 traitor + 3 townies / pro townies

    That is if we have 2 cultists, but if we have 3 cultists then, I think it’s better to find the cults first 😶 otherwise, it’s a guarantee they will win in D6 (unless the mafia killed a cult or the cult kill the mafia and we have double death for the anti-town, hooray!)

    TLDR:
    I was trying to find the best option whom to look for right now whether the mafia or the cult, but ended up making myself got a headache cause of it.

    Also, I forgot to add about Anna’s comment that she might be the one responsible for the double deaths was quite scary, no? For all we know that the night deaths could actually be mostly done by her instead? @-@

  71. Hi @Meeghan, I know the game can be quite tense, I’m sorry if it seems like I said the wrong thing to you.

    I was just wondering about the chat, and if I missed if you said about your thought that Greg’s chat might be the cult chat, then I apologise. When I read your D4 comment, I didn’t see any cult chat being brought up in Greg, but I might have missed it.

    And I didn’t stuck on you, I was just asking your first opinion, you answered and asked me if I knew it was night chat. And I replied, and then I said you overlooked the first comment he made, which he later said it was an all-time chat. That was all. If I ever offend you in my comment, again I apologise. Sorry 🙂

  72. That’s awesome, mods. 🤣

    I’m going to change my vote since reading the room, no one else really seems to be vibing on Greg any longer. I don’t think that vote is going anywhere and it feels like a crucial Day based on everyone’s numbers talk.

    Maybe Greg is the traitor and his info earlier sparked the mafia to keep him alive two days in a row during crucial votes. Kerrie’s switch vote to save him after his vote thief reveal kinda backs this. As mafia, why would she care which townie died end of day? Perhaps she thought it was a chance to save the traitor? I don’t think he’s a townie, but maybe he’s not mafia. He could be in a neighbor chat as a traitor with a townie?

    I’m suspicious, as I stated before, of both Amber and Maria, and they both have votes on the board.

    Anna’s comments are giving me life. I don’t think she is cult or mafia at this point, and if she is a town poisoner, then maybe Maria is indeed walking the plank. I think the extra deaths are now “proven” to be Anna’s doing?? If we eliminated two whole mafia in one day, maybe we’d actually stand a chance to live long enough to get the cult.

    VOTE: AMBER B

  73. I’m going to try my best to be around end of day, but as I have stated before, it is not a good hour for me (lunch/nap transition for my toddler).

  74. I have a question, what would happen if all the mafias are eliminated? Will the traitor also be revealed and died at the same time too?

    Assuming we have 2 mafia left and both of them are Amber and I. And if the traitor will die if the mafias are all eliminated

    Then with 6 people left (9 – 3 deaths)

    Then the cult will win, probably not in D6 if we have 2 cultists toDay

    But if we have 3 cultists now then the cult will win right away and Game Over

    But then again both Amber and I could be town which will then make D6 started with

    6 people (assuming I died cause of Anna and 1 cult death cause of the mafia but 1 townie turned to cult)

    So we will have
    2 mafias + 1 traitor + 3 cultists

    Well Idk right now 😂 I’ll just go back in few moments to reread again and put my vote before I slept

  75. @Anne: I’ve been primarily focused on getting my bigger posts together so I hadn’t noticed this:

    I’m going to change my vote since reading the room, no one else really seems to be vibing on Greg any longer. I don’t think that vote is going anywhere and it feels like a crucial Day based on everyone’s numbers talk.

    You are correct and there’s a good reason for it, I think. The final votes counted for Greg yesterDay EOD were: Anne, Amber G., Kerys, and Shannon (I’m leaving my last minute vote out of this because it didn’t make the tally). Half of those people were either voted out EOD or killed over Night.

    Of the two…

    Shannon – I’m not sure what she’s thinking because at one point she says this:

    Harker – I HAD thought Harker was defending Greg and that they were teammates but the last-second vote switch attempt makes me wonder if Harker is third party… Possibly Allie/the Cult leader if what Meeghan suggested towards the end of yesterDay is true?! I know you voted for Jeann Day 3 and we found out she was a cult member when she died overNight, but since you were the only vote for her it’s possible that you were doing that to create distance knowing she wasn’t going to get voted out.

    I also feel like Harker is spending a lot of time so far today discussing the Cult and trying to figure out how many people they may have turned.

    Which seems contradictory. If I were the Cult Leader, why would I be trying to figure out how many people the cult had turned? I would know, either because they had joined the cult or because that function had failed. I explained myself to her here: https://tinyurl.com/4uqlznpq. Would we consider this post a change of suspicion from her previous Days when they were primarily focused on voting Greg out? She does mention him:

    Greg – I’m still very suspicious of Greg for all the reasons previously mentioned, as well as the fact that people keep vote-switching last second and saving him at the end of the Day.

    Anne – she mentioned Greg briefly at the beginning of the day:

    At this point very unfortunate, but her death does highlight once again how Greg was in the lead and then the votes swing to a townie.

    VOTE: GREG

    Not to beat a dead horse because this horse is still very much alive. Lol

    It’s funny that you use this phrase, Anne, because Shannon does too a day or so later. What was that about having the same thought? 😜😂

    Now, aside from the people that voted from him yesterDay, that has been a bit of chatter. Meeghan said:

    In saying all of that, NONE of the people I’m most suspicious of are on that list. In fact, the only one that I’m even mildly suspicious of is Greg.

    There has also been a bit of back and forth between her and Maria regarding Greg’s chat.

    Ok, that’s done (addressing Anne’s comment) for the moment. I’m going to look back at some things before I vote though I think I’ve narrowed it down a bit.

  76. @Maria:

    I have a question, what would happen if all the mafias are eliminated? Will the traitor also be revealed and died at the same time too?

    Unless there’s some kind of ability of whatever that linked the Mafia/Mafia affiliated, I don’t think they’d die in a group like that. We have to vote them out or someone has to kill them with an ability. If all the other Mafia members die, though, before the Traitor, they automatically lose. I don’t think they die, but it’s a condition of their Role that they need a teammate to be alive.

    From the role page: If all other Mafia teammates die, the Traitor loses.

    I’m not really sure what to make of your calculations. I think the math works out, but what I’m trying to decide is, are you saying/”saying” that you’re Mafia and the Town would have a better chance of winning if we took out the Cult first because it is a threat to both the Town and the Mafia? And the Amber is your teammate, one way or the other? Or are you only bringing her name into it because she is on the board?

  77. Okay, so the reason for vote switching from Kara to Jenn was as simple as me finding the cat thing odd but that was just me taking a shot in the dark.

    The “There are no hood guys” was just a dhow reference as all the characters are pretty grey. Saying “do not trust non-grounders” is a bit much given we KNOW there are “good” people throughout the season who aren’t grounders.

  78. Voting Update:

    Amber B (3) — Beth, Meeghan, Anne
    Maria (1) — Anna

    Not voting: Harker, Greg, Amber B, Shannon, Maria

    2.5 hours left!

  79. @Harker:

    I’m bringing Amber’s name cause she’s on the vote there and by what Anne implied that she said two mafia deaths, I assumed it would be Amber and me. Since again if whoever Anna voted will kill the other (in this case me).

    All I can say I want the town to win and thus, I’m trying to see the urgency of the cultist. If I don’t know we have a cult, I’ll focus on the mafia. But now it was revealed so…tho I wish we could lynch 2 people now at the same time both cult and mafia if possible 😂

    Also I wish Anna could tell us more about her killing ability, but I don’t want to pry too much. At one point if she’s townie, it’s great we have a chance to counter attack the mafia. That her killing bring down the mafia (ie Kerrie). But since we have the cult, having so many deaths aside from the mafia’s killing is not good.

    It will decrease the people and thus dilutes the proportion needed for the cultists to win.

    With that for me I’ll go and

    VOTE ANNA

  80. 😀 at Anna’s comment going piratical.

    @Harker You had long analytical posts earlier about Anna, Anne, Amber B, and myself….are you continuing with an analysis of Greg, Maria, Meeghan, and Shannon toDay?

    @Anne

    Maybe Greg is the traitor and his info earlier sparked the mafia to keep him alive two days in a row during crucial votes. Kerrie’s switch vote to save him after his vote thief reveal kinda backs this. As mafia, why would she care which townie died end of day?

    That’s a good point! Maria and Amber B both voted for Kerys as well, which helped keep Greg alive.

  81. @Beth: I’m trying to work on them as quickly as possible. I felt ill last night so I wasn’t able to work on them as late as I wanted, plus I had work today. I am working on Maria’s at the moment. I was going alphabetically but with time short, I am skipping ahead to Maria because she is on the voting board.

  82. Btw I forgot
    Happy Valentine’s Day everyone
    Are we going to have like a special Valentine’s Quest or something? 😂

    I’ll look again for someone who might be a potential of cult leader or in the cult and mafia. I’m just wary of Anna’s ability. But there’s tiny possibility that she might be the cult leader. She’s always quiet so she could use that to go under the radar

    So anyway CANCEL VOTE

    @Harker: Well I’m waiting 😂 but I may not be able to address everything as it’s midnight here

  83. @Harker, you said:

    “Half of those people were either voted out EOD or killed over Night.”

    Isn’t that in itself kinda suspicious?? I mean, people opposing Greg be dropping like flies and everyone is like, oh um, normal! Carry on!

  84. Well crap. I got so distracted but yeah, that is. 🙃 Like I said, I’ve been trying to get these posts done and they take a lot.

    Here’s a question: do you think it’s more likely that Greg is Cult or Mafia? I don’t see him as Town, at least not anymore, so I’m not sure if I ever did. The problem is, and I haven’t fully looked at toDay’s comments with the magnifying glass that I’d like, I think that Amber and Maria look good for some kind of link as well.

  85. @Harker I think the actions of known Mafia (like Kerrie) protecting Greg, as well as Anne’s point about those voting for Greg ending up dead points to Greg being Mafia more than Cult (assuming Cult recruits and Mafia kills).
    Could we have 3 Mafia (Greg, Amber, and Maria?), 3-5 Town, and 1-3 Cult?

  86. Cult Theories

    People Remaining: Amber B., Anna, Anne, Beth, Greg, Harker, Maria, Meeghan, Shannon

    Maria

    Final Votes by Day: Jenn, Megan, Megan (success), Kerys (success)

    DAY ONE

    Maria’s starts by commenting about playing the mobile Werewolf game, responding to Bookish Games on mobile, and some other fairly generic items.

    I’m not sure how to begin with. Kara’s voicing out so early and quite a bold move is a curious thing for me.

    She does make an observation about Kara’s bold beginning.

    Could it be that Kara’s voting for Greg was a 3rd party’s move? That she has to vote for Greg because she was ‘ordered’ too? Though I’m not sure if anyone can use their ability right away at the first day.

    Maria doesn’t seem to have strong opinions about anyone or anything at this early stage despite the busy beginning of D1.

    As of now, I don’t know whom to vote, I will reread everything again or maybe I will be like Siran choose not to vote instead. Haha.

    Though in one of her last comments of the Day she does focus on Kara’s Grounders comments.

    So for me at some point she’s contradicting herself or maybe she’s trying to point out her opinions and it’s up to us to believe. Still a bold move somehow (or it could be a mafia’s move to confuse us?

    The speculations on Kara are as follows:

    So, I was looking at the roles and I was thinking could it be that

    a) She was a Lyncher and have to vote Greg at the beginning (I think Harker also mentioned this before?)

    b) And the fact that she didn’t fear death. Could it also be that her power will be ‘awakened’ if she dies so therefore she also mentioned about calculated risk? And I look at the roles there’s this called Vengeful, that when a player was lynched, s/he/they will be awarded to kill any player who voted for them, hence the ‘calculated risk’ she mentioned.

    She doesn’t end up voting for Kara because of the potential that Kara is Vengeful and chooses Jenn instead.

    CONCLUSION D1: I do not remember seeing why Jenn was the choice that she made. The Kara speculation makes sense, I think, but why Jenn? Anna had already placed a vote for Jenn at 1:47PM 1.17, but that was the only vote for Jenn at the time (Amber B. will also vote for her by EOD).

    DAY TWO

    Maria doesn’t really addresses why she voted for Jenn, at least not clearly, which is interesting because Jenn was killed N1. The closest that she comes is in a comment to Beth:

    I just find that statement of Jenn is quite irk me that time. I mean we don’t know each other’s role (except our own) and despite it maybe true that it’s weird to vote if you’re in the same team. But again we don’t know each other’s role and Kara is quick to put herself in spotlight. So there could be many things going on, plus the calculated risks she mentioned made me bit worried.

    That’s why despite Kara was on the lead that time; I decided to take back and see what could happen

    Why Jenn, though? Why not anyone else? Nicole also had a vote on the board, if that is the angle she was going for, or she could have picked anyone that didn’t have a vote if she wanted to “see what could happen”.

    She focused on Kara D2 which is not terribly surprising as Kara was still alive at this point and quite vocal. She asks Kara about her Grounders are Pro-Town stance, how she doesn’t specify that she is Town, and things in that vein.

    In a comment to Amber B., she seems to indicate a kind of trust in Kara…

    What I read again from D1 (cmiiw) that Kara only mentioned that “Grounders might be pro town” or that the town need grounders. And not really saying she’s a grounder? (Or maybe she is? Can someone help?)
    Yeah I also find the Do not trust Non-Grounders statement is quite blunt and extreme
    Cause like Jenn is cop apparently and she’s The Ark. If we can’t trust non-grounders then, could it be that the cop role from Jenn is a disguise? That she’s (Jenn) actually something else??? Maybe??

    …or at least her information. This comment also casts doubt on the information that is revealed when someone dies. Is it intentional or setting something up for when another person dies and info about them is revealed?

    Speculates about Dana and Greg, the two people on the board at the time. Dana’s comment seems to have more analysis to it while Greg’s seem to be more acknowledging that he had said he would be busy, not really looking into any activity he’d done that day or previously.

    She does catch something that Meeghan says, that she is on Jenn’s team. I don’t remember anyone else doing so at the time, but I could be forgetting as that was a couple weeks ago now.

    Meeghan;
    She mentioned right away that she’s in Jenn’s team and that she’s The Ark. it’s a bold move, could we trust this statement?

    What is the difference here between, so far as I can tell at this point, trusting Kara and her assertions, and trusting Meeghan and hers? Both have been described by Maria as bold, so what to her is the difference?

    This basically gets answered in the next comment 😆:

    As Jenn’s role was revealed (The Ark) and it might be a pro-town or town, somehow Meeghan conveniently said that she’s in the same team as Jenn. Trying to somehow have a blanket over her that she’s ‘not-mafia’

    Considering the aspersions Maria was casting on the legitimacy of the Role reveal, I’m not completely surprised she didn’t think that Cop = Town but was that intentional or just spitballing?

    I am leaning towards Megan Rose because of this:
    “I wouldn’t have guessed The Ark to be the main group of the games seeing as the shows and books follow The 100 mainly, and I thought this yesterday and still believe it now.”

    This comment didn’t/doesn’t make much sense as a starting point, though Maria did follow up with:

    I do believe Meeghan also has pointed it out and I slightly agree that it means Megan is not The Ark; thus could be into mafia or a third party. And that she cancelled her vote like last minute even though she said it’s better to vote

    And it is always better for someone to go since then we have info to play with, even if they did end up being town.

    Though EOD can be stressful, I just find that it’s quite convenient to vote and cancel then use the reason that I don’t want to join the bandwagon despite not knowing why people vote for Nicole at the first place…

    In her last comment mentions this:

    Siran Not to vote decision is quite weird; could it hve something to do with her role or could it be today a result of the night action…

    CONCLUSION D2: Maria’s D1 vote didn’t make much sense to me and I don’t think it was really addressed. I think her D2 one makes a little more, or at least had some tenuous evidence, even if it did turn out to be a Townsperson. However, I’m not sure that a lot is actually being said.

    DAY THREE

    She confirms the groups that have been announced and wonders if there could be more than one person on Team Murphy, similar to how there was more than one person on Team Marcella in BYOC2.

    Amber G night reveal about Kara and Greg is interesting. There’s no point for her to lie about this if she’s going to risk N3; but there could be other possibilities for the night talk or that maybe it’s a chaos by the mods?
    And I don’t want to jump right away in this. I guess, I’ll wait what Greg has said.

    What did she mean by other possibilities? Did we all miss this when we started talking about Mason/Neighbor chats?

    She asks Jeann:

    How did the mafia know that Kara is a bodyguard? Why did you say so? Is there additional role that can let the mafia knows the role of other players other than cop?

    Jeann had speculated that Kara was targeted because the Mafia somehow knew she was a Bodyguard and would be protecting someone.

    About Amber G.’s reveal about Greg and Greg’s chat:

    About Greg and his chat, there’s still possibility of neighbour or Mason; think the one like Anna and Beth previously. As this situation is more like he said she said in a way. I’ll leave this for now, might get to that again later.

    She asks Amber later if she can share verbatim what was said between Greg and whomever (which Amber cannot, copy/pasting is not allowed).

    Thought that Jeann’s comment about Greg’s activity at Night in his chat might have been misdirection.

    I want to address this too because it got me to my dream; haha @Jeann:
    The fact that he’s been very active in his Night chat, but not particularly helpful during the Day looks very anti-town to me.
    I think that it was quite misdirection in a way because Amber G only got 2 remarks from Greg, which could be all the remarks/comments/chats/ he made in the night chat; and suddenly Jeann said he was very active and somehow attacking him. And then Amber G came into that saying the same thing.

    She did want to know why Kerys had to be the one to bring up Kerys/Jeann’s chat and if there was a specific reason.

    Thought that the Cult chat could be either Kerys/Jeann or Greg/whoever.

    Here is what I’m thinking about the chat
    – Greg could be mafia, cult, neighbor, or mason
    – The same could be for Kerys and Jeann
    – I don’t know if it will be good to keep Greg to see what else he could tell us or to vote for him so we can decide what to do from there
    – The traitor, as mentioned by Beth before that could only be known to mafia now irked me to think that Greg might be more to mafia
    – Or go to either Jeann or Kerys now so we can decide if the chat they have is indeed the neighbor/mason
    – With Kerys and Jeann not changing their teammate information, in a way tells me that both from different team, and a possibility one of them is anti-town

    She also specifically wonders if there could be more people in a Mason/Neighbor chat.

    When she’s about to vote for Megan, she says that Megan stated that she knows Kerys’s Role which isn’t entirely accurate. Megan had information that said Kerys was Town, not her Role.

    Megan voting reason:

    cause I still don’t trust her explanations about Nicole’s and Dana’s voting; and then out of nowhere she came to tell us that Kerys is a town; after Kerys revealed about the chat thing she (Kerys) has with Jeann.

    She also says to Shannon that she wonders why Megan waited so long with this information if she’s known since N1, plus:

    If voting for Greg would give us more information, won’t it also be the same if we vote either Jeann and Kerys? Just because both of them claim to be in the same night chat, doesn’t mean they are town / pro-town either. In addition, Amber G hasn’t mentioned if she has done any night action for N1 (if she has eavesdrop any conversation from another player in N1).

    CONCLUSION D3: Maria seems to want to know a lot of specifics about people’s abilities such as are there more people in the Mason/Neighbor chat; did Amber G. hear anything else earlier in the game/what was explicitly said; other possibilities for the Night Chat (which I think was actually the first time a difference was brought up but it was missed in the shuffle). All in all, I think this is some subtleness at asking for further information without being too outwardly sus.

    DAY FOUR

    Wait okay. I just came in to get notif
    If Jeann happened to be in a Cult, does that mean Kerys who’s in chat with Jeann is also the same??
    Unless it’s a neighbor chat so maybe??

    Next comment has a lot of questions, mostly pertaining to what night chats are in existence, what ones could be. Wondering about the powers of the Cult Leader, how does a Cultafia work, how does a Cult win:

    Don’t know if it’s relevant, but the cult leader wins if half of us has turned? Which meant the leader has to turn like 9 of us (since we have 19) and we have 3 nights so far, assuming the leader managed to turn everyone. Then we might have 4 cults already? Is this how it works?

    She then asks what happens to those that have been recruited if the Cult Leader dies.

    There’s one thing that I was confused tho. Why would Kerys go out about their chat if she might be the cult? And yeah, how could Jeann kept the neighbor chat?
    Unless, she’s actually recruited in N3 by the cult leader, however later on killed by the mafia?
    Is it possible?

    These questions about how the Cult works, how it wins, and how Jeann could be recruited only to die…put together with the beginning suspicions I had and I’m starting to think that there’s some Cult-y sus going on here under the guise of haplessness. Could be Mafia too but either way, I’m getting not so great feelings.

    So I have been thinking perhaps about Jeann’s neigbor’s role and chat that wasn’t crossed. Could it be that the Neighbor chat she has is actually the Cult Chat? Perhaps that’s why it wasn’t crossed.

    This comment from D4:

    Doesn’t look good right now ; I guess I want to focus on the cult now that we know it’s real. But again, we can always let the mafia and cult face each other (mafia kills the cult or the cultist leader turn mafia into a cult, the latter one is possible right).

    Kind of feels like it takes on a different view in D5 because it feels like now (D5) she is trying to describe ways in which the Mafia and the Town should fight together against the Cult? See this comment: https://thebookishgames.wordpress.com/2021/02/10/30952/#comment-80040

    In addition to that, why not just kill Amber G in N3 if there’s a risk that Amber G will us her power on him again? I don’t know if eavesdropper works once for one player or that it can be used multiple times. Or the fact Amber G is a trick from Greg itself…hmm…which was why right now, I’ll give Greg a bit of benefit of the doubt.

    That is a good question.

    CONCLUSION D4: there were a lot of questions about the Cult which, the first time around, sounded like general questions in finding out how we could find suspicious players, but in hindsight looks like it might be kind of sus, as typed above.

    CONCLUSION OVERALL: I find Maria to potentially be an anti-Town person, though I’m undecided as to what alignment other than that.

  87. Sorry for being pretty MIA, having a bit of an emergency right now (literally, in the emergency room 😶 but the baby is doing well so that’s good news!)

    I am a bit torn on who to vote for but I can’t guarantee I’ll be around for the end of the Day if a dr comes in or I have to go get testing done or whatnot so I’m going to just get a vote up on the board just in case. I hope to be around though since so much craziness keeps happening in the last few minutes most Days

    VOTE AMBER B

    For all the reasons I’ve been suspicious of her (stated in previous comments).

  88. Voting Update:

    Amber B (4) — Beth, Meeghan, Anne, Shannon
    Maria (1) — Anna

    Not voting: Harker, Greg, Amber B, Maria

    Just over half an hour left!

  89. @Beth:

    @Harker I think the actions of known Mafia (like Kerrie) protecting Greg, as well as Anne’s point about those voting for Greg ending up dead points to Greg being Mafia more than Cult (assuming Cult recruits and Mafia kills).
    Could we have 3 Mafia (Greg, Amber, and Maria?), 3-5 Town, and 1-3 Cult?

    That sounds like a fair assessment. Assuming there aren’t any other 3rd Parties like Team Murphy, of course. If there are 3 Mafia remaining, with 2 already eliminated, we would have started with 5, which is about the right amount for a game this size. Only one Cult member has been killed off so far and we don’t know what their recruitment has been like, so at max I think they’d have 4? Assuming they started with a Leader and accrued one every Night, minus Jeann dying. If she hadn’t, and assuming +1 every Night with a base of Leader, there’d be 6 now. We’d be done. I think we can assume that they have less than 5 at least because of majority numbers: we have 9 people left and the game isn’t over, so something is stopping them from having that majority, whether it’s recruitment, the Mafia, whatever.

    VOTE GREG

    Here’s my conundrum. Why aren’t we voting Greg when, as has been pointed out, he’s skated by so many days now and seems quite comfortable? I’m ready to change my vote to my secondary choice, Amber, but as Beth pointed out in the above comment (actions point to Mafia rather than Cult) and Anne pointed out about the comments toDay not really focusing on him at all, the more I think about it now, EOD, the more uncomfortable I feel. Like, am I missing something? In any case, it was what I intended yesterday so let’s see.

    (P.S.: Shannon, take care! If you need anything, please let us know!)

  90. I’m trying to catch up!

    I’m here for pirate talk. And interesting that Anna doesn’t know WHY this is happening.

    @Harker- hope you feel better!

    Meeghan-is that an Arya reference???

  91. (@Shannon: Take care! Hope everything is fine! Please tell us how it goes later)

    @Harker:
    That is also another thing I wonder… we have been focusing for Greg since the revelation and he managed to evade so many times. And then today, everything seemed so calm and like being controlled from behind somehow…

    The only vote for Greg previously is from Anne which was even now changed to Amber…

    Also, just a curious question to you.

    You’re so into cult before, do you think Greg is in the cult which is why you’re voting for him? That based on your analysis, he’s the most likely cult leader?

  92. Anne said

    Isn’t that in itself kinda suspicious?? I mean, people opposing Greg be dropping like flies and everyone is like, oh um, normal! Carry on!

    I mean, I’m flattered but I’ll point out I don’t think I have that much power or influence! Also- if you take away the chat element- which I know has caused some suspicion (and to be fair, with all the stuff that’s come out, I’m not sure it’s that hinky anymore??) what else about me makes me suspicious??

    Shannon has opposed me pretty consistently and she’s still here?

    Beth said

    Could we have 3 Mafia (Greg, Amber, and Maria?), 3-5 Town, and 1-3 Cult?

    Could be, but take me out of that mafia alignment okay? 🙂

  93. Voting Update:

    Amber B (4) — Beth, Meeghan, Anne, Shannon
    Maria (1) — Anna
    Greg (1) — Harker
    Anna (1) — Amber B

    Not voting: Greg, Maria

    23 minutes to go!

  94. Yikes, Shannon! I hope everyone is OK!

    @Harker Thanks for breaking down the suspicions around Maria. I’ve found most of her comments difficult to discern, because there’s a lot of wide-ranging questions in them, so I appreciate this retrospective. I didn’t catch the D4/D5 switch of “we should let Cult and Mafia kill each other off”/”we should team up with Mafia to kill the Cult” thing…could this be some sort of messaging from one anti-Town team to another, especially given her previous questions/comments about chats? Hrm…

  95. @Beth: it definitely feels like something, which is why she’s on my list of anti-Town suspects.

    People I don’t think are anti-Town at the moment are Meeghan and Beth. I’m not really sure about Shannon because I haven’t been able to look into her as much as I’d like, but she has pointedly voted for Greg 3 days running, so take that as you will.

  96. @Harker

    Why aren’t we voting Greg when, as has been pointed out, he’s skated by so many days now and seems quite comfortable?

    Given previous attempts to vote Greg out have been thwarted (presumably by Mafia), I’m focusing on removing those I also suspect to be anti-Town first.

  97. Thanks for all the well-wishes everyone, I’m hanging in there.

    @Harker I’m still just as suspicious of Greg as I’ve been but since he had no votes on the board when I voted (and still only 1 with a few minutes to go) I feel like voting for him yet again will be throwing away my vote

  98. Lol if I were to vote for Anna, you guys will use that saying that I’m aligning with Amber, when I’ve done but cancel the vote

    That is of course assuming I survive the Night 🧐

    Then again, with the cult and potential more deaths other than the work of mafia is not good. Tho mafia killing is no good either 🤷🏻‍♀️

    @Amber: I think it’s fine if Anna can kill anyone other than her. I think Shannon has that ability too in BYOC2 but that’s because we don’t have the cult

    Since we have the cult, have more deaths mean less people, less requirement for the cult to win (ie they need 1 town instead of the 2 townies previously)

    PS: I’ll say take me out from the mafia alignment too 😂

  99. Voting Update:

    Amber B (5) — Beth, Meeghan, Anne, Shannon, Harker
    Maria (1) — Anna
    Anna (1) — Amber B

    Not voting: Greg, Maria

    4 minutes to go!

  100. Maria:

    @Amber: I think it’s fine if Anna can kill anyone other than her. I think Shannon has that ability too in BYOC2 but that’s because we don’t have the cult

    Even though she seemingly doesn’t have control over it/a choice? I seem to remember her not liking that Jenn got killed, remorse of some kind? I thought it indicated that she didn’t have full control over it, but I may be misremembering and I can’t go looking for it at the moment.

  101. Meeghan said

    However, since it’s possible that Cult can also turn mafia members, it does make me wonder if this is more of a priority for you.

    I’ve been wondering this too.

    It could ‘ave been just a coincidence that Marie ‘ad a similar opinion t’ Kerrie not long aft the wench voted fer Kerys but it also seems likely that th’ mafia could ‘ave banded together, them lily-livered scallywags.

    And this

    Why are you so stuck on me not wanting to discuss the Greg’s “night” chat? And why do you keep calling it a night chat when Greg has said multiple times that it’s an all-the-time chat?

    I haven’t been super suspicious of Maria but a few things today have been iffy- so I’m going to vote Maria at this point. Sorry Maria!!!

    Beth said

    Maria and Amber B both voted for Kerys as well

    Even though technically I benefited, this is another data point. VOTE MARIA

  102. Voting Update:

    Amber B (6) — Beth, Meeghan, Anne, Shannon, Harker, Maria
    Maria (2) — Anna, Greg
    Anna (1) — Amber B

    EOD post incoming.

  103. Day Five has officially ended. The person with the most votes (6) is Amber B.

    Except… uh oh.

    It seems something is keeping her from being eliminated. Sorry. 😬

    It is now Night Five. If you have a special role that involves a Night action, please submit the form by Tuesday 7pm GMT (48 hours from now, but honestly the sooner the better). The form can be found by clicking the “Current Game” link in the menu and scrolling to the bottom of the page.

    We also have a brand new Night Event situation for you! It goes a little something like this:

    You spot a large gorilla-type animal roaming around the forest. You probably are not faster than it. You definitely are not stronger than it, and bullets don’t seem to even slow it down much. Aside from wondering what the actual heck a gorilla is doing in a forest in Maryland, what do you do now?

    If you’d like to enter, simply fill in the Night Action form with your response to our question. We’ll then randomly choose a winner (or loser).

    Day Six will start on Wednesday 7pm GMT. Any additional casualties will be revealed at that time. Good luck!

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